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Brokerage houses are like property agents: Buy, buy, buy – now is always a good time to buy, they say.

And so it is with U.K. equities. For much of the year, the FTSE 100 was the worst-performing stock market in Europe. But since late October, the index has been on a roll and investment firms are turning more bullish.

Why? Apparently because a no-deal Brexit looks unlikely and because Parliament endorsed Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s U.K.-EU divorce strategy before the Dec. 12 election was called.

But those aren’t the real reasons why the “Buy Britain” calls are coming out in force. The real reason is the sputtering Jeremy Corbyn. The polls show that his Labour Party, with its schemes to tax the rich, nationalize entire industries – including the BT Group’s broadband network – and introduce a four-day work week, is galloping toward defeat. For investors, the election has little to do with Brexit and everything to do with the now-credible Conservative majority scenario.

The Conservatives were presented with a nice little gift Monday when Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party, announced he would withdraw candidates from Tory-held ridings and run them instead in those held by Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the other parties (the Tories won 317 of 650 seats, a minority, in the 2017 election). A fresh YouGov poll, the first since Mr. Farage’s tactical retreat, put the Conservatives at 42 per cent (up three points), Labour at 28 per cent (up two) and the Lib Dems, the only big party that opposes Brexit in any form, at 15 per cent (down six). The poll marked the Conservatives’ first showing north of 40 per cent since February.

Polls are sometimes dead wrong, of course. They failed to predict a Brexit victory in the 2016 referendum on EU membership and failed to predict that the Conservatives, then under the hapless Theresa May, would lose their majority in 2017. Still, with less than four weeks to go before polling day, a lead of 14 percentage points indicates a comfortable Tory victory. While a Labour government, perhaps in coalition with the Lib Dems, is not out of the question, that scenario now seems as likely as the Queen tweeting that she’s an EU-hating Brexiter.

A Conservative victory would mean Brexit by the end of January. The government would then launch into trade negotiations with the European Union during the year-long transition period. The effort will almost certainly take much longer – the Canada-EU trade deal took seven years to negotiate – and possibly go nowhere.

But Mr. Johnson does not want to go down in history as the man who wrecked the economy to deliver Brexit. Industry is already leaving Britain, fearing a hard Brexit, and the economy is sagging, although managing to skirt recession. He wants a deal and the leaders of the slowing EU economy would be motivated to help him get his wish. Britain is the largest European market for German automakers; one in seven German-made cars is sold there. The German car industry is already in a slump, and trade barriers between Britain and the EU could deliver a profit-killing rout. Protecting that industry alone may be enough motivation for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to entertain Mr. Johnson, even if she probably thinks he’s a deceitful blowhard.

Investors are clearly betting that the election hands Mr. Johnson a victory. Since its recent low in late September, the FTSE 100 is up about 3.5 per cent, taking the one-year gain to 4 per cent. Earlier this month, data from Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed that British equities, which the investment bank had branded “extremely unloved,” were earning some affection again. The evidence was 15 consecutive days of investment inflows, the longest since 2015. The high average dividend yield of British equities, at about 5 per cent – near a 20-year-high – is a powerful indicator that they are undervalued.

And the British M&A market is springing back to life, signalling a return to bargain hunting. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September offered to buy the London Stock Exchange for a 23-per-cent premium. The bid failed, but a flurry of smaller domestic and foreign takeover offers in various industries, all with hefty premiums, hit the mark.

The next month, and the next year, could still deliver nasty surprises to investors. Mr. Johnson’s lead could evaporate, handing a minority government to Labour. Deal negotiations with the EU could take years, or even collapse, extending the uncertainty that business so abhors. But the Conservatives’ widening lead and Mr. Corbyn’s deep unpopularity point to a Conservative win and a potential turnaround for equities. The investment houses may be right this time around with their buy calls.

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