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The announcement by one of Canada’s major oil producers would have been a jaw-dropper, just a few short years ago.

Cenovus Energy didn’t just promise this week to reduce per-barrel greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent by 2030, from a 2019 baseline, which is ambitious. It also pledged to work toward “net-zero” emissions by 2050, which given the environmental toll of extracting bitumen could seem borderline outlandish.

But for an industry that hopes to continue profiting off Alberta’s oil sands, this kind of messaging is becoming the new normal. And depending on how companies such as Cenovus answer skeptics’ questions about what the commitment means, it still might not be enough to reverse the reputation problem that threatens their future.

Although it is among the more forward-looking players in the sector, when it comes to recognizing climate-change impacts, Cenovus is not the first to set these sorts of goals to reduce emissions. Last summer, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. announced a similar “net zero” aim, albeit without a target date, and MEG Energy has indicated that aspiration as well. Others will likely follow.

The impetus, to some extent, is political pressure. Cenovus’s targets ostensibly mirror those being pursued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, which is committed to an overall emissions reduction by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, and has promised to put Canada on a path to net-zero by the middle of the century.

More so, the pressure is financial. With environmental, social and governance or ESG considerations increasingly factoring into investors’ decisions, Alberta’s oil producers are at risk of being badly starved for capital.

Spend time in Alberta, and you will still hear considerable dismissal of the idea that global demand for oil and gas will significantly decline in the foreseeable future. But you will also hear, including from some major players in the sector, talk of providing “the last barrel of oil.” The latter at once suggests that demand will decline, and signifies a belief that Alberta’s extractors can clean up their environmental act enough to avoid being among the first edged out.

Initial reaction to Cenovus’s announcement on Thursday, from those who help shape perceptions, offered the sector some cause for encouragement. The energy and environment think tank Pembina Institute, for instance, issued a statement calling the goal-setting “a great example of leadership at the individual corporate level.”

But almost immediately, there were also questions about whether the long-term goal in particular is anything more than aspirational, amid what University of Calgary research fellow Sara Hastings-Simon (who is also a Pembina fellow) called “a lot of pieces missing” in the announcement.

Among the ambiguities that Ms. Hastings-Simon and others point toward is the extent to which executive compensation is tied to meeting emissions-reduction targets. (In its news release, Cenovus stated that “consideration will be given to enhanced opportunities to link ESG performance to executive and staff compensation,” while noting that environmental performance is already included on a scorecard influencing pay.)

But the biggest open questions are about technological capacity. While the reduction in intensity by 2030 might mostly be achieved with advancements already in the works – such as increased use of co-generation units and continuing efforts to curtail methane leaks – Cenovus acknowledged in the announcement that net-zero would require solutions “beyond those that are commercial and economic today.”

In an interview, Al Reid, the Cenovus executive vice-president responsible for the company’s sustainability efforts, pointed to carbon capture and storage as topping the list of such would-be solutions. As Mr. Reid put it, the technology currently works “here and there.” There are still major advances needed to scale up.

Another technological leap, the development of solvents to replace steam in bitumen extraction, is further along by Mr. Reid’s estimate. But there remains uncertainty about the extent and timeline of that replacement, and the timeline.

And to achieve net-zero, without relying very heavily on carbon-offset purchases, there might need to be technology barely even on the radar yet.

The argument from Mr. Reid is that industry-wide reductions in greenhouse gas intensity over the past decade show Alberta’s extractors are capable of moving as swiftly as Cenovus’s goals suggest.

Not that reaching those goals would placate those who see continued fossil-fuel reliance as incompatible with climate imperatives. Environmental activists will point to Cenovus promising only a flat-lining of total emissions by 2030 despite the reduction in GHG intensity per barrel, which would mean a significant increase in how much oil it produces. And they will highlight that about 80 per cent of oil-and-gas emissions comes from consumption, which won’t be changed by more efficient extraction.

But Cenovus isn’t playing to that perspective, so much as to people – particularly with investment dollars to spend – who believe there will be enough long-term demand for at least the most environmentally competitive producers to still be selling their product decades from now.

An announcement like this week’s may be a good start in making the case that Canadian companies can fit that bill. They have little time to waste in following through with specifics, if they hope to win the uphill perception battle.

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