The British government has ratcheted up its warnings about a “no-deal Brexit,” suggesting that if the country leaves the European Union without an agreement, it will affect everything from cellphone charges to driving licences and even alerts about falling space debris.
The cautions came in a series of 28 technical papers released Thursday that outlined how the country will have to adjust in several key areas if Britain leaves the EU without an agreement next March. For example, the documents noted that once Britain is outside the EU, the country would no longer fall under the bloc’s rules that allow cellphone users to make calls, send texts and use data without incurring any extra charges. “This would mean that surcharge-free roaming when you travel to the EU could no longer be guaranteed,” the paper said. Other papers said British drivers would have to obtain one or two different permits to drive in EU countries, and another document noted Britain would no longer be part of the EU’s Space Surveillance and Tracking program, which provides early warnings about falling space debris.
This was the second tranche of “technical notices” issued by the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, and it came as British and EU officials headed into the final stages of negotiations about an agreement on their future relationship. Britain will be out of the EU on March 29, 2019, and the EU has insisted that a deal must be reached by the end of October to allow enough time for ratification by member states. A withdrawal agreement must also be finalized before Britain can begin discussions about a trade deal.
British Prime Minister Theresa May and Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab have said they remain confident a deal will be struck, but they’ve added that the government must prepare for a no-deal scenario. There are also growing signs that Ms. May is using the threat of a no-deal to push rebellious factions within the Conservative Party into accepting her Brexit strategy, known as Chequers because it was hatched at the Prime Minister’s country retreat.
Under the Chequers plan, Britain would enter into a customs arrangement with the EU which would govern trade in goods and effectively keep Britain within part of the bloc’s single market. The plan has been bitterly opposed by several dozen Tory MPs who say it would trap the country under EU control and prevent Britain from striking trade deals elsewhere because it would remain aligned with EU tariffs. Some Tories have gone so far as to call for Ms. May to quit as leader. This week, a group of about 50 MPs put forward their own Brexit plan which would see the country make a complete break with the EU.
On Thursday, Mr. Raab shot back at the rebels and made it clear the Chequers plan was the only credible option. He indicated that MPs faced the choice of accepting the strategy or facing the prospect of leaving the EU without a deal. “When push comes to shove, there will be the choice between the deal that I’m confident we can strike with the EU and the no-deal scenario,” he told the BBC. “And we are making sure we are ready for the latter. But I think it would be by far the optimum outcome to have a negotiated deal, and I think that will focus everyone’s minds.” Mr. Raab and Ms. May are hoping that even hard Brexit MPs will be wary of the disruption that would be caused if the country left without a deal.
Ms. May’s other main challenge is convincing the EU that her plan is workable. This week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that while parts of the Chequers plan could be a starting point for the future relationship, the EU can’t accept the proposal for a customs arrangement. In a speech to the European Parliament, Mr. Juncker said Britain needs to “understand that someone who leaves the union cannot be in the same privileged position as a member state. If you leave the union, you are of course no longer part of our single market, and certainly not only in the parts of it you choose.” The EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has been somewhat more optimistic, saying this week that a deal with Britain was possible by early November, “if we are realistic.”
The Irish border also remains a key issue in the talks. Both sides say they don’t want to see a hard border on the frontier between Ireland and Northern Ireland after Brexit, but it’s unclear how that can happen without Britain remaining entirely within the EU’s single market. The EU has proposed that if a deal can’t be struck, Northern Ireland would remain largely within the single market. However, Ms. May has rejected that, saying she will not allow one part of the country to be treated differently than the rest.
Paul Waldie