A massive earthquake on B.C.’s South Coast could disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancouver for several months, while bottled water and meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s dozen bridges, says an internal case study for Canada’s agriculture ministry.
The federal government wouldn’t be able to help much: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), the agency in charge of the response, would only be able to “facilitate” businesses and charities delivering such life-saving necessities, according to a March, 2018, case study and other internal documents obtained through freedom-of-information laws by Ottawa researcher Ken Rubin and passed on to The Globe and Mail.
The documents show the department has long been concerned about being designated to take a leading federal role in providing food and water if a province or territory asks Ottawa to pitch in on disaster relief. Things did not go well the lone time AAFC was asked for such assistance in recent years, when Public Safety Canada requested it source bottled water to give to asylum seekers crossing the border into Quebec in August, 2017.
big earthquake could hamper
relief efforts
A big earthquake off the coast of southern
British Columbia could hinder the distribution
of relief supplies by damaging key infrastruc-
ture such as bridges and reservoirs. An internal
case study by Canada’s agriculture department
found an earthquake of that force could disrupt
the flow of drinking water in and around Van-
couver for several months, while bottled water
and meal rations would likely be very difficult
to deliver because of damage to the region’s
bridges.
Seymour
Reservoir
Legend
Capilano
Reservoir
Coquitlam
Reservoir
Areas of
key bridges
Indian
Arm
Burrard
Inlet
Key northern
reservoirs
Coquitlam
Vancouver
Maple
Ridge
Surrey
Fraser River
Salvation
Army depot
Delta
BRITISH
COLUMBIA
0
5
Abbotsford
KM
JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada via ken
rubin; GOOGLE MAPS
big earthquake could hamper
relief efforts
A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Colum-
bia could hinder the distribution of relief supplies by
damaging key infrastructure such as bridges and reser-
voirs. An internal case study by Canada’s agriculture
department found an earthquake of that force could
disrupt the flow of drinking water in and around Vancou-
ver for several months, while bottled water and meal
rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of
damage to the region’s bridges.
Seymour
Reservoir
Legend
Coquitlam
Reservoir
Capilano
Reservoir
Areas of
key bridges
Indian
Arm
Burrard
Inlet
Key northern
reservoirs
Coquitlam
Vancouver
Maple
Ridge
Surrey
Fraser River
Salvation
Army depot
Delta
BRITISH
COLUMBIA
0
5
Abbotsford
KM
JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture
and Agri-Food Canada via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS
big earthquake could hamper relief efforts
A big earthquake off the coast of southern British Columbia could hinder the distribution of
relief supplies by damaging key infrastructure such as bridges and reservoirs. An internal case
study by Canada’s agriculture department found an earthquake of that force could disrupt the
flow of drinking water in and around Vancouver for several months, while bottled water and
meal rations would likely be very difficult to deliver because of damage to the region’s bridges.
Seymour
Reservoir
Legend
Coquitlam
Reservoir
Areas of
key bridges
Capilano
Reservoir
Indian
Arm
W. Van.
Key northern
reservoirs
Pitt
Lake
N. Van.
Burrard
Inlet
0
5
Coquitlam
KM
Burnaby
Vancouver
Maple
Ridge
Steelhead
Surrey
Richmond
Fraser River
Langley
City
Salvation
Army depot
Delta
Westham
Island
BRITISH
COLUMBIA
Boundary
Bay
Abbotsford
JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
via ken rubin; GOOGLE MAPS
“The request revealed logistical challenges within AAFC surrounding how water would be sought (donation vs. procurement) as well as confusion regarding the responsibility for related actions within the department,” a memo to the deputy minister of the department stated.
Experts agree that over the next 50 years British Columbia has a one-in-10 chance of being hit by a magnitude-9 event, which is similar to the most recent megathrust earthquake, near Japan in 2011, which created a massive tsunami. But the case study, as well as an analysis commissioned by the federal department in 2015, shows not much progress is being made to address the gaps in how Ottawa would respond.
Unlike in the United States, where the Department of Agriculture and the Federal Emergency Management Agency stockpile food and water, Canada doesn’t have a dedicated disaster response agency and AAFC does not have warehouses full of supplies, according to the 2018 internal case study.
“AAFC would be challenged to lead the federal response to a request for safe food and water for public consumption due to the fact that AAFC is not an on-the-ground response system, has no direct access or ownership of food or water supplies, and has limited water-related expertise and resources,” the documents state.
Meanwhile, B.C.'s Emergency Management Agency noted its plans for how to provide potable water have been put on hold until it receives an update from Metro Vancouver, the regional body in charge of the area’s drinking-water network.
Metro Vancouver wouldn’t divulge its “multiyear" plans beyond saying five new water tunnels are being designed to current seismic standards. The organization did not provide an expected date for when these projects would be completed.
B.C. Public Safety Minister Mike Farnworth has announced the province is planning to update its emergency-management laws by next fall to better manage and reduce the risks posed by natural disasters such as flooding and earthquakes. He noted the last time they were updated was in 1993.
He said it’s understandable that the federal government doesn’t stockpile food.
“The question becomes, how long were you stockpiling it for? … Even water, if it was bottled water, for example, has a life. But those are the kinds of issues that we take into account in terms of our emergency planning,” Mr. Farnworth said.
“One of the reasons why we advise people to be ready, if there is a disaster, to have 72 hours worth of supplies on hand, is because it will take time, [and] depending on where you are it may in fact take longer to get help and services to you.”
John Clague, a professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University who has studied earthquakes for three decades, said AAFC’s case study shows the federal government agency is serious about identifying the major shortfalls in its response capability. But, he said, the report also reveals the major challenges faced by Metro Vancouver if even a magnitude-7.5 earthquake hits with an epicentre 50 kilometres or closer to the region.
A good comparison for Vancouver, Dr. Clague said, is the magnitude-6.3 quake that hit seven kilometres from Christchurch, New Zealand, and led to nearly 200 deaths and $20-billion in damage. A worst-case scenario on the Canadian West Coast would likely see hundreds of thousands of Vancouver residents scrambling for potable water in the days following such a quake, he said.
living on the edge
An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction
zone could register higher than 9 on the Rich-
ter scale, about as powerful as the Tohoku
earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011.
Nothing like it has occurred in British Columbia
since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a
massive quake that shook the entire region on
Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the
same event would deal a crippling blow to
communities and infrastructure in one of
Canada’s most populous regions.
British
columbia
Vancouver
Seattle
Victoria
Coast Mountains
u.s.
Continental
crust
North
American
Plate
Haida
Gwaii
Juan de
Fuca Plate
Pacific
Plate
Cascadia fault
Pacific
Ocean
Oceanic crust
Subduction zone
Juan de Fuca plate
is sliding underneath
the Continental crust
Mantle
Partial melting
ivan semeniuk and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS; GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL
RESOURCES CANADA; POST MEDIA
living on the edge
An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could
register higher than 9 on the Richter scale, about as pow-
erful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in
2011. Nothing like it has occurred in British Columbia since
Europeans first arrived, but traces of a massive quake that
shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be
found. Today, the same event would deal a crippling blow
to communities and infrastructure in one of Canada’s
most populous regions.
British
columbia
Vancouver
Seattle
Victoria
Coast Mountains
u.s.
Tacoma
Continental
crust
North
American
Plate
Haida
Gwaii
Juan de
Fuca Plate
Pacific
Plate
Cascadia fault
Pacific
Ocean
Subduction zone
Oceanic crust
Juan de Fuca plate
is sliding underneath
the Continental crust
Mantle
Partial melting
ivan semeniuk and JOHN SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS; GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL
RESOURCES CANADA; POST MEDIA
living on the edge
An earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone could register higher than 9 on the Richter
scale, about as powerful as the Tohoku earthquake that devastated Japan in 2011. Noth-
ing like it has occurred in British Columbia since Europeans first arrived, but traces of a
massive quake that shook the entire region on Jan. 26, 1700, can still be found. Today, the
same event would deal a crippling blow to communities and infrastructure in one of Cana-
da’s most populous regions.
Canada
British
columbia
Two plates
u.s.
Vancouver
British Columbia borders
two tectonic plates moving
in opposite directions
Coast Mountains
Seattle
Victoria
Tacoma
Continental
crust
Van. Island
North
American
Plate
Haida
Gwaii
Juan de
Fuca Plate
Cascadia fault
Pacific
Plate
Subduction zone
Pacific
Ocean
Juan de Fuca plate
is sliding underneath
the Continental crust
Oceanic crust
Mantle
ivan semeniuk and JOHN
SOPINSKI/THE GLOBE AND MAIL
SOURCE: USGS; GOOGLE MAPS;
GRAPHIC NEWS; NATURAL RESOURCES
CANADA; POST MEDIA
Partial melting
“You can imagine the water supply system – which is basically feeding from our [three] North Shore reservoirs – would be broken,” Dr. Clague said. "These are subsurface lines, the infrastructure is old and it is going to be a long time at a huge cost before it is capable of resisting a worst-case earthquake.”
Patrick Girard, an AAFC spokesman, said his department is working with the provinces to better understand when they feel they would need Ottawa’s help.
In the meantime, as recommended in the case study, AAFC has created a list of businesses and organizations that could be asked to provide food and water after a massive natural disaster, Mr. Girard confirmed.
If “The Big One” hits Vancouver, the AAFC case study found the non-governmental organization the province intends to lean on the most – the Salvation Army – could provide meals for 10,000 people a day.
But the charity said it has nowhere near the capacity to make 100,000 such meals, which would represent roughly one daily ration for every six people living in Vancouver.
The case study noted the Salvation Army has 13 food banks across the province and has asked local restaurants and the Save-On Foods grocery chain to donate meals in the aftermath of past natural disasters. Still, mobilizing the delivery of these supplies in Metro Vancouver could be impossible given that “a catastrophic earthquake in Southwestern B.C. would result in extensive damage to road and rail networks.”
“Even moving a mobile unit from Abbotsford [west] to the City of Vancouver could be hampered by damage to bridges,” the case study stated.
John McEwan, the director of Emergency Disaster Services for the B.C. arm of the Salvation Army, said he is optimistic that within two days of a massive quake his organization could be pumping out up to 50,000 meals a day. Within a week, airdrops of water and food could vastly increase that capacity, he said, but the state of the region’s roads and bridges would dictate how easily these supplies could be distributed.
“There are ways to do this, but it won’t happen overnight,” said Mr. McEwan, who has been working in the field of disaster relief across the Western Hemisphere for two decades.
He said every household should stockpile enough food and water to last longer than the three days worth recommended by the province: “If I’m the preacher, I’m saying seven days.”
The Canadian Red Cross, the other organization with a memorandum of understanding to help British Columbia in the wake of a disaster, mainly pitches in to provide clothing, emergency lodging, reception and information, personal and family reunification services, the case study noted.
The charity e-mailed a statement to The Globe noting that it could also provide water and sanitation after a catastrophic disaster and it has “access to resources and expertise from around the world through the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement.”
AAFC has long been uncomfortable with its stated responsibility of providing food and water if a province or territory asks Ottawa to pitch in on disaster relief.
In 2015, the AAFC commissioned an analysis from an outside consultant that recommended the department lobby the federal government to change the national emergency response plan adopted in 2011 to better reflect AAFC’s inability to provide food and water.
The 2015 report, which Mr. Rubin also received and passed to The Globe, responded to the AAFC’s request to provide a rationale for shifting this responsibility to Health Canada, which is responsible for medical supplies.
The consultant’s report found AAFC was the best department to stickhandle the emergency response because it “has strong existing networks that could be leveraged in an emergency event, and could serve as the basis for broadened partnerships, with respect to both food and water."
An appendix to the report stated: “We are of the view that AAFC would encounter strong resistance from both Public Safety Canada and the Health Portfolio to any proposal that the lead role for securing safe food should move away from AAFC.”
With a report from Justine Hunter in Victoria
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