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Lewis Hamilton at the Mercedes GP Team Photo during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Abu Dhabi at Yas Marina Circuit on Nov. 23 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.Clive Rose/Getty Images

In a move that surprised many, including some of those close to him, Formula One driver Lewis Hamilton has decided to join the Ferrari team in 2025. On the surface, it’s a switch that seems to defy logic – mainly because the driver and his current team, Mercedes-AGM Petronas, is the most successful combination in the history of the sport.

This bond, which began in 2013 and will conclude at the end of this season, has yielded 82 of Hamilton’s record-setting 103 career Grand Prix victories and six of his record-tying seven World Drivers’ Championships. Prior to joining Mercedes, Hamilton raced for McLaren, piloting cars also powered by a Mercedes engine. So, every one of his 332 races to date has been aided and abetted by the German manufacturer.

There are parallels between the star driver’s decision to leave McLaren back in 2012 and this latest career move, which was confirmed earlier this month. But there are differences as well.

In 2007, Hamilton burst onto the Grand Prix scene with McLaren, staging the most successful campaign ever by a rookie. Nine consecutive top-three finishes to start the season. Four victories, his first coming at the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal. Six pole positions as fastest qualifier. And level second in the season’s standings, tied with McLaren teammate Fernando Alonso, just one point behind Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen.

The following year, Hamilton captured his first World Drivers’ Championship in dramatic style. In the season-ending Brazilian Grand Prix, the Brit made a decisive pass on the last lap to beat Ferrari’s Felipe Massa by a single point. He became the first Black driver to win the F1 title.

But the subsequent four seasons (2009-2012) with McLaren didn’t yield the expected results. Cue the surprise move to Mercedes.

In existence since 2010, the Mercedes team captured just a single race win over its first three seasons; Hamilton won 10 races for McLaren over that same stretch. So his decision to leave a more competitive team was nothing if not bold and unexpected.

In his debut season for Mercedes, Hamilton won a single race and finished fourth in the championship. A year later, in 2014, he won 11 races and captured his second World Drivers’ Championship. Further title wins followed in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.

Just as his final seasons with McLaren were subpar, the last two campaigns with Mercedes have been less than stellar. In fact, the team’s performance has been worse than McLaren’s in 2009-12. Hamilton did not win a single race in 2022 nor in 2023; this hadn’t happened in his previous 15 seasons in the sport. The Mercedes team has also been well off the pace of the Red Bull F1 team, which has dominated the last two campaigns.

But here’s the rub: Ferrari is also way behind Red Bull.

This season, the expectation is that neither Mercedes nor Ferrari nor any other team will be able to close the gap in a meaningful way. The smart money says that the 2025 season could also see more of the same. But, in 2026, when an entirely new set of rules is introduced to F1? That’s when the door is flung open to the possibility of change.

Here’s the other hitch.

Remember that time Hamilton lost the championship to Raikkonen by just one point? That’s the last time a Ferrari driver won the World Drivers’ Championship – a long 16 years ago. In 2008, Ferrari won the World Constructors’ Championship, which recognizes the top team. That’s the last time the series’ most famous brand finished at the top of the standings.

If Hamilton’s 2013 transfer from McLaren to Mercedes was bold and unexpected, his decision to join Ferrari seems, by some, borderline self-destructive by comparison. Or is it?

Last month, Hamilton turned 39 years old; he likely has a handful of seasons left in F1 before he starts to lose his edge or lose interest. He already holds the records for the most wins by an F1 driver, most points and most pole positions, and shares the record for most championships. He still has time to add to all those numbers; this must be a source of motivation for Hamilton or he would have quit racing by now.

He’s likely not overly motivated by money. In 2020, he was labelled the richest British sports star of all time by The Sunday Times Rich List. Two years later, Forbes pegged Hamilton’s annual earnings at US$55-million and described him as F1′s top income generator from 2013-21. Although the terms of his Ferrari deal were not revealed, chances are the Italian firm would have at least matched Mercedes on the finer details.

All things considered, Hamilton’s decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari may not have been the logical choice. But it was the passionate one.

Ferrari is the most prestigious name in F1 and the only manufacturer that’s competed in every race since the start of the modern era in 1950.

Also, over the course of 73 seasons in the sport, the team has been successful: 242 victories, 249 pole positions, 258 fastest laps and 16 World Constructors’ Championships. These numbers represent all-time records. Ferrari has also powered its drivers to 15 World Drivers’ Championships – this, too, is a record.

This legacy of success – combined with the mere fact that Ferrari is Ferrari – has lured previous world champions to try their luck with the team. Of course, Michael Schumacher is the driver they’ve been seeking to emulate. He won two consecutive titles with Benetton in 1994-95, then jumped to Ferrari. This switch paid off with 72 victories and five consecutive World Drivers’ Championships (2000-04).

But when Alonso made a similar move, it did not yield success. A two-time world champion for Renault (2005-06), the Spaniard decamped to Ferrari for the 2010 season. He won 11 races in five seasons with the team, but could finish no higher than second in the championship. In his final season with Ferrari, Alonso failed to win a race.

Another world champion, Sebastian Vettel, rolled the dice in 2015, replacing Alonso at Ferrari. Vettel won four titles and 38 races while driving for Red Bull from 2009-14, but did not repeat that level of success with Ferrari. In six seasons, Vettel captured 14 wins, but could not climb past the second rung on the championship ladder either. In his final season with Ferrari, Vettel also did not win a race.

Now, all eyes will turn to Hamilton to see whether he’ll struggle like Vettel and Alonso before him, or if he’ll pull a Schumacher.

In a statement posted to X, Hamilton had this to say about his decision: “The time is right to make a change and take on a new challenge. I still remember the feeling of taking a leap of faith into the unknown when I first joined Mercedes in 2013. I know some people didn’t understand it at the time but I was right to make the move then and it’s the feeling I have again now. I’m excited to see what I can bring to this new opportunity and what we can do together.”

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