David McLaughlin was chief of staff to former prime minister Brian Mulroney, finance minister Jim Flaherty, and NB premier Bernard Lord.
Memo: To the Prime Minister
From: A Trusted Advisor
Subject: Winning in 2015
Prime Minister, Happy Election Year! 2015 has arrived and the election clock is now ticking. For the first time in almost two years, we are back on top with a real chance of an historic four-peat. But this rise is deceptive. While a majority versus minority outcome remains outstanding, a minority attitude on our part is guaranteed to give us a minority result.
In short, at this stage in the government's life, we have to recognize the limits to our traditional strategy of polarization aimed at motivating our vote, as it risks repelling the extra votes we will need. It is not that with two opposition parties on the left cannibalizing each other's vote it places a low floor on ourselves; rather, it puts a low ceiling on the extra votes we will need to win another majority.
We need to grow our vote pool, not shrink it. Here are five ways to do it:
First, keep the leadership contrast going. Some of where we have gained in the past two months on this front was strategy; some of it was circumstance. The strategic decision to participate in a military mission against Islamic State followed by the tragic circumstance of the terrorist attack on Parliament Hill thrust your brand of leadership into the forefront. Voters liked it. Your undiplomatic slap down of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the APEC Summit over Ukraine was golden.
But we cannot kid ourselves. It was the contrast part that played well for us. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau's flippant response to our IS motion could not have been scripted any better by our own war room. Caution against assuming this will be the norm from Mr. Trudeau would be wise. But a strong leadership frame is reasserting itself in our favour.
Second, do not cede any middle-class economic room to the Liberals or NDP. Our 'family tax cut' announcement and decision to enhance the universal child care benefit fortifies this ground for us nicely. This type of initiative works well as it reminds key constituencies of what we have already done while bringing in new measures to show we are not standing still. New ideas that continue to expand the definition of middle class in the tax code and government programs will play in our favour.
Third, deliver on balanced budgets come hell or high water. Oops, been said before, but you get the drift. We have already announced a balanced budget for next year and we cannot miss it. But we need to show they will continue. The goal here is to make them substantial enough to be real, but not so big it lets the opposition off the hook for 'reckless spending promises'. To buttress this, a sizeable debt reduction payment has to be part of the budget package. This keeps a financial squeeze play on the opposition, and pleases our base.
Fourth, raise the tone in Parliament and re-embrace democratic accountability. The Del Maestro, Calandra, Poilievre, and Fantino episodes were all self-inflicted wounds, not to mention the mid-year Supreme Court bungling. It distracts from our agenda while reinforcing the view that we are arrogant, have something to hide, and disrespect democracy. The public has noticed. Set the tone from the top and show we do not consider our most precious democratic institutions as inconvenient at best or unnecessary at worst.
Fifth, get a grip on energy and the environment. Pipeline projects are stalled, First Nations discord is rising, and the Paris climate change talks are coming up at the end of the year. This hasn't been our best play to date and no end game is in sight. We remain vulnerable to inaction charges by Canadians who want their national government to chart a reasonable path forward. Show we take this seriously. Now is a good time to create some kind of dialogue mechanism or process to help bridge divides, come up with ideas, generate goodwill and most of all, show voters we are the solution, not the problem.
Prime Minister, this is still our election to lose. Which approach we select: polarization or openness will help determine the outcome, minority or majority. Or worse.