Vaccine paranoia cuts across the American political spectrum. Ground zero for the anti-vaxxers is liberal Marin County, near San Francisco, where hundreds of wealthy, well-educated parents have succumbed to conspiracy theories about a Big Pharma plot to poison their children.
No one does paranoia better than wing-nut conservatives, however. The Republican fringe sees vaccines not as a corporate plot, but as a government one. Remember Michele Bachmann? The former Minnesota Republican congresswoman and early 2012 presidential candidate warned that the HPV vaccine could cause "mental retardation." That pretty much put an end to her presidential run. Her political career flamed out soon after.
The race for the 2016 GOP nomination has barely begun, but the paranoid style in GOP politics may have already claimed its first victim. Kentucky senator, med-school grad and expected presidential candidate Rand Paul told CNBC this week that he was aware of "many tragic cases of walking, talking, normal children who wound up with profound mental disorders after vaccines."
Whatever that is, it is not a mainstream point of view. (An official at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control told Congress that no such incidents have resulted from the current measles vaccine.) Mr. Paul still has strong support among libertarian Republicans. But his vaccine eruption has just made him even more toxic to a party establishment bent on picking a candidate who can win over mainstream voters.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie might have been that candidate. But he, too, botched the vaccine debate by trying to appease a Republican base that believes in parental choice above all else. He spent a trip to London meant to show off his foreign-policy chops doing damage control, visibly deflated.
The timing could not have been worse for Mr. Christie. With Mitt Romney now officially not running – the 2012 GOP nominee stood down last week, realizing that one more news story about him putting his dog on the car roof would be too much to bear – GOP establishment types are moving fast to lock in their support, and their dollars.
By and large, they are picking Jeb Bush. The former Florida governor, and son and brother of former presidents, choose downtrodden Detroit to lay out his vision for "reform conservatism" in a Wednesday speech – all while telling parents they "need to make sure their children are vaccinated." It was the unofficial opening act of a campaign focusing on the "Right to Rise" through policies favouring social mobility, a more uplifting idea than Democratic talk of redistribution.
Will it work? The U.S. economy is on a roll – this will favour the Democratic candidate in 2016, provided that a global currency war doesn't entirely cripple American exports and corporate profits. Everyone and Mitt's dog expects that Democrat to be Hillary Clinton, who tweeted this week: "The science is clear: The earth is round, the sky is blue, and #vaccineswork. Let's protect all our kids. #GrandmothersKnowBest."
The factors that make Mr. Bush a compelling general election candidate – his support for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, his appeal among Hispanic voters and his endorsement of national education standards – make him a tough sell among big chunks of the Republican base.
Many Republicans also doubt that Jeb could win a Bush-Clinton matchup. The country has already elected two Bushes and most feel that's enough. There's Clinton fatigue, too, but Americans are warm to the idea of a woman president.
The deal-breaker for many could be the Terri Schiavo case, which would be endlessly relitigated in a Bush-Clinton campaign. As Florida governor, Mr. Bush intervened to stay a court decision that favoured the husband of a brain-dead woman seeking to disconnect her feeding tube. His legislation was declared unconstitutional. Mr. Bush, a convert to Catholicism, stuck many then as a bully for whom the end justified the means.
Those in the party who remain uneasy with Mr. Bush think the fresh, if unexpressive, face of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker could catch on with both the base and the establishment. Mr. Walker won a 2012 recall election in purple Wisconsin, a de facto referendum on Republican legislation banning collective bargaining in the public sector. He's a hero to free-market types.
Still, no other likely candidate has the machine, the money or the mainstream cred of Mr. Bush. He has become the overwhelming favourite for the nomination, with a little help from the anti-vaxxers.
Konrad Yakabuski