Gary Doer, Manitoba's accomplished NDP Premier, yesterday did something remarkable. He quit while ahead, way ahead.
Mr. Doer could have stayed. He's already the country's longest-serving premier, and could quite probably have won a fourth mandate. He remains by far the most popular politician in Manitoba. But he quit, or at least announced that he will quit soon, having been re-elected for a third mandate in 2007.
Quitting politics sounds unremarkable. People do it all the time, but it's usually because the electorate kicks them out, because they face likely defeat, because they get too old or because they are forced out by internal party pressure. Rare is the leader who quits at the top of his game.
Think of some of Mr. Doer's Western Canadian contemporaries. Alberta's Ralph Klein was essentially deposed by his party. Saskatchewan's Lorne Calvert was defeated. When Mr. Doer was first elected in 1999, other premiers included Lucien Bouchard, Mike Harris, Dan Miller, John Hamm and Bernard Lord. Jean Chrétien had been prime minister for about six years. Where are they now?
A leader enjoying political success is surrounded by people saying publicly and whispering privately that he or she is indispensable, unbeatable. They insist there is a record that remains to be embellished, another chapter to be added to the history books. The party is counting on the leader for another victory. Power, as we know, is a strong elixir.
It takes a politician of singular strength to understand that such advice is usually from and for fools - that at some point, an appreciative electorate changes its mind. Sometimes, the voters turn because of a scandal or an event. Sometimes, they just think like democrats: It's time for a change.
Last winter, Mr. Doer was privately musing about a self-imposed deadline for determining his future. He would either stay and fight anew or leave this fall, thereby giving the party plenty of time to choose a successor. He understood, and talked about, the perils of overstaying his welcome.
Mr. Doer stayed close to public opinion, occasionally to a fault, as when he went with the Manitoba flow in opposition and fought the Meech Lake accord. As Premier, he has run a pragmatic, middle-of-the-road government in a province that usually rewards political centrists. He was also quite sociable, which made Manitobans feel comfortable with him. They might have disagreed with him, but they knew he wasn't dogmatic or crazy or tormented by dark corners of the soul.
Before entering politics, Manitoba's Progressive Conservatives were confident he was going to run for them, in part because he sometimes ran with a Tory social crowd. Maybe they were misinformed, but they were shocked when he announced for the New Democrats.
Mr. Doer understood Manitoba's dependence on the federal government. Without equalization payments, Manitoba would be in severe financial shape. Manitoba is usually somewhere in the middle of the Canadian economic pack, its economy never soaring or nose-diving.
He always made a point of trying to get along with the day's prime minister. Not for him the grandstanding and fed-bashing of some other premiers. He preferred quiet, constructive relations. Those prime ministers, including Stephen Harper, appreciated his style. So did Manitobans, who collectively appreciate moderation in things political.
The recession has handed Manitoba a deficit. Perhaps Mr. Doer knew hard decisions lie ahead, and so left before he would have to make them. He did, after all, believe in balanced budgets.
Mr. Doer was a fixture at the NDP's federal conventions, including the recent one in Halifax. He would fly in for a day, receive the mild applause due a successful NDP premier, then give a speech whose appeal for pragmatism would be quickly forgotten by the federal party.
It's hard to see Mr. Doer going to work for Manitoba's largest private employers, the Richardsons or Great-West Life or Investors Group. He's a public man who, at 61, has much yet to give.
He's a terrific public schmoozer. He's vitally interested in things American. He loves attending those annual meetings of U.S. governors. A pure guess for his future: consul-general in a place such as Los Angeles or Denver or Seattle. Canada could do a lot worse.