Minmetals Resources CEO Andrew Michelmore reacts as he leaves a news conference in Hong Kong April 4, 2011.BOBBY YIP
Shares of Equinox Minerals Ltd. soared in Monday morning trading after China's Minmetals Resources Ltd. revealed its surprise $6.3-billion hostile bid.
Equinox's shares are now hovering around $7.50, up about 30 per cent from Friday's close. The current price is also 50 cents above Minmetals' bid at $7 per share, which means investors believe a second bid is likely.
However, analysts are divided on the issue. Some, like Cormark Securities' Cliff Hale-Sanders, expect higher bids to emerge because Equinox "has the most significant near-term production growth profile within its peer group," he wrote in a note to clients.
But other analysts question who else could put together a bid on such short notice. "While there are several parties that have a stated interest in acquiring substantial copper assets, and in particular on the Zambian Copperbelt (e.g., Vale, Vedanta, Xstrata), we believe that each of these prospective bidders currently has corporate constraints that might prevent them from entering the fray against Minmetals on a fairly short term basis," UBS analyst Onno Rutten noted this morning.
Still, there is a widespread belief that if anyone is to acquire Equinox, it will have to be at a much higher price. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Oscar Cabrera ran the numbers of historical prices paid for operating copper miners over the past 12 years and calculated an average of $978 per tonne. Minmetals' current bid is worth $835 per tonne.
In Australia, shares rose nearly 29 per cent.
Tim Kiladze