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Scott Barlow

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web

George Magnus, semi-retired UBS economist, has a terrific perspective borne of decades of industry experience. His recent post, "9 Lessons from 2016", is a great example, covering all of the economic and political news that roiled markets for the year. I found the "Even economic experts have to learn" section the most poignant,

"There are several things economists should not be proud of. We taught people too much maths and modelling over the years, and not enough economic history and economic thought. Most economists didn't spot the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s. And many can't shed the economic themes and structures that arose in the 1980s. Taking the whole period from 2010 to date, and incorporating the Eurozone crises, much economic thinking, espoused by political leaders, has been drivel and or positively harmful. The blind belief in the powers of monetary policy alone to nurse a return to economic health in the wake of the crisis beggars belief."

"Nine Economic Lessons from 2016: the Full Monty" – George Magnus

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FT Alphaville's annual "Person(s) of Interest" long list is both savage and hilarious. The short note on Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes is indicative,

"Founder and CEO of the parasi-tech pioneer, whose name is a portmanteau combining the words 'therapy' and 'nonsense.'"

"FTAV Person of Interest 2016: the longlist" – FT Alphaville (free with registration)

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Credit Suisse attempted to predict "10 Things That Could Happen in 2017" in the energy sector, suggesting that someone is going to get rich selling sand to the fracking industry,

"Sand constraints slow the pace of US supply increases. Sand becomes the new guar." The #7 'prediction' on the list is likely the most interesting, "Virtual reality, ride sharing, and electric power trains cause questions to be raised about the long-term US gasoline demand outlook."

"@tracyalloway A sand shortage sighting in Credit Suisse's latest energy industry outlook" – (full list) Twitter

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Goldman Sachs believes that, despite higher U.S. interest rates, global financial conditions will support an equity rally in 2017,

"Financial conditions — the state of financial variables such as interest rates, equity prices, and credit spreads—have eased in much of the world since Q1, as markets stabilized from the sharp sell-off in risk assets in early 2016. o In the US, the easing through mid-year was considerable; even after the recent sharp rise in bond yields and the resumption of dollar strength, our US Financial Conditions Index (FCI) remains roughly 100bp easier than its tightest level in January."

"@SBarlow_ROB 1h GS: global financial conditions will be ok-to-stimulative in 2017" – (research excerpt) Twitter
Credit Market counterpoint: "If You Think the Pace of Economic Activity Is Weak in 2016, Just Wait Until 2017" – Econtrarian

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Tweet of the Day: "@TIME Snake disguising itself as an ornament makes for worst Christmas surprise ever ti.me/2h3E1YC " – Twitter

Diversion: "Nate Silver Interviews Michael Lewis About His New Book, 'The Undoing Project'" – Fivethirtyeight

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