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Making a well-reasoned argument in favour of an investment is great. But getting the call right is much, much better. I was fortunate to have a bit of both this year – with a few stinkers, too.

Of course, it's a little tricky to extricate my own views from articles that hang on the research and voices of others. In fact, a scribe like me is prone to reporting (and therefore forwarding) both the bullish and bearish cases for a stock. Still, I did take positions and it's worth revisiting them to see how they fared.

Here are some of the more interesting ones.

Canadian banks: Like everyone, I've been riveted by the Canadian housing market and remain perplexed by rising house prices and consumer debt levels – neither of which bodes well for bank lending. I voiced my concerns in late 2012 and again in February when bank shares went on a tear.

I concluded: "You have to wonder how far this bank rally can go before reality catches up to share prices." I got my answer: Plenty. By Dec. 19, the banks had delivered year-to-date returns of 20 per cent – the bulk of it after my column – or nearly double the return of the S&P/TSX composite index.

However, I also wrote about why U.S. banks were a better bet, given the stronger outlook for the U.S. economy and the pickup in the housing market. The KBW bank index rose 35 per cent in 2013, and has outperformed Canadian banks (okay, by a little) since my call.

Apple Inc.: Big investors wanted Apple's cash distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks. I didn't think it was a great idea, or at least figured that distributing cash wouldn't do much for the company's share price.

What investors really want to see, I said, was a company that continued to push the edge of consumer electronics, and without the introduction of a splashy new i-Something, investors just weren't going to get excited about the stock, with or without a dividend and buyback announcement.

The big investors got their wish: Apple announced a $17-billion (U.S.) bond issue in April, as part of a $100-billion dividend-and-buyback plan. In June, I wrote that "the iPhone and the iPad appear to be losing their cachet among consumers – and investors – who want to see Apple deliver something new that puts the company back at the forefront of consumer innovation. That's a problem financial engineering can't solve."

I cling stubbornly to that view, but the wiser market thinks otherwise. Apple's share price has since risen about 36 per cent. It's not near its record highs, but the decision to distribute cash – along with a refreshed product line – has given the stock a much-needed boost.

Cyclical stocks: In May, I noted that one of the conundrums of the year was why U.S. cyclical stocks looked like such a steal next to defensives. Back then, utilities, consumer staples and health-care stocks led cyclical areas of the market in terms of year-to-date returns and earnings-multiples.

I'm no raging bull, but I didn't get it: "Cyclical stocks are looking like a better bet than defensives if the economy continues to plod along or gain some traction. The fact that this isn't a popular bet makes it even more appealing."

Since then utilities and consumer staples have lagged the S&P 500, while industrials have risen 24 per cent, consumer discretionary stocks have risen 21 per cent and tech stocks have risen 17 per cent.

Starbucks Corp.: As a consumer, I've been avoiding Starbucks coffee ever since I discovered an awesome brewing technique (using locally roasted beans, hand-ground at my desk) for the office that gives me a better cup at a lower price. As an investor, though, Starbucks has an upside: It's moving into emerging markets, and has a long stretch of expansion ahead if the example of Yum Brands Inc. provides a template.

As I said in January: "Yum Brands Inc. is one of the top plays on emerging markets, given its aggressive expansion into China. There, revenues now surpass those derived in the United States, making the fast-food company a perfect way to bet on a growing consumer class. Starbucks has nowhere near that kind of exposure right now, but the potential is strong."

Since then, investors have lost a lot of enthusiasm for emerging markets, given declining economic growth and vulnerability to a pullback in U.S. economic stimulus. Yet Starbucks shares have risen about 41 per cent since my call, beating the S&P 500 by 15 percentage points and Yum Brands by 32 percentage points.

If I ever ramp-up the scale of my office brew, though, watch out.

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