A roundup of what The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
The most exhaustive report on the state of the Canadian housing market I've seen was published Thursday by Citi economist Dana Peterson.
I posted a few of the charts on social media, and, inevitably, angry reactions were everywhere as information interfered with people's emotional prior beliefs. The emotional commitment in real estate–related disaster among an admitted minority of Canadians continues to surprise.
Here are some highlights from the Citi report but, before you ask, I cannot email the report to readers – I get access to research on condition I don't distribute,
"@SBarlow_ROB More Citi: "Canada is Unlikely to Suffer a US-Style Housing Bust" – (research excerpt) Twitter
"@SBarlow_ROB Citi: Risks of disorderly correction in Canadian housing market" – (research excerpt) Twitter
"@SBarlow_ROB Great slide from Citi's Peterson, "Canada's Housing Market is Different from the United States'" – (research excerpt) Twitter
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Macquarie economist David Doyle described why he is "maximum underweight" the Canadian economy, "Increasing evidence of softness in 3Q reinforces our conviction to maximum underweight Canada, particularly its banks and domestic focused consumer stocks. Strength in 1H was not driven by a self-sustaining private sector activity, but rather temporary factors. There is an increasing possibility that 3Q real GDP will show a contraction. Our forecast remains for a negative quarter, a call well below the consensus (2.5%) and BoC (2.8%). As emphasized after the 2Q real GDP release, much of the 1H strength was driven by the energy sector."
"@SBarlow_ROB Macquarie's Doyle is 'maximum underweight' Canada. (consistent bear tho)" – (research excerpt) Twitter
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Macquarie's research team were a bit more constructive on the resource sector, detailing the commodity prices with the most positive outlooks, namely gold, silver, nickel and uranium. The analysts are also bullish on lithium, zinc and alumina but feel time is running out for rallies in these sectors,
"@SBarlow_ROB Macquarie: "our key commodity recommendations" – (table) Twitter
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The contentious state of NAFTA negotiations has pundits on both sides of the border predicting what happens if NAFTA ends,
"'Something close to panic': What happens if NAFTA dies" – BNN
"What Would Happen if the U.S. Withdrew From Nafta?" – New York Times
"U.S. hikes tensions in NAFTA talks with call for 'sunset clause'" – Reuters
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Tweet of the Day: "@Jesse_Livermore Remember when we would pull out our phones to check what markets were doing? Now we no longer need to check, bc we know the answer: NOTHING." – Twitter
Diversion: "The world's first "negative emissions" plant has begun operation—turning carbon dioxide into stone" – Quartz
Scott Barlow