David Rosenberg, the chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff - and a notable skeptic of the economic recovery scenario - is running with Tuesday's disappointing reading on U.S. consumer confidence.
The Conference Board reported that its index slipped to 53.1 from 54.5 the previous month - heading in the wrong direction and failing to meet expectations at the same time, which skewered early market gains on Tuesday.
Mr. Rosenberg pointed out that, historically, by the time the S&P 500 rebounds 60 per cent from its recessionary trough (which it has, this year), the confidence index has risen to 92 - or nearly 40 points higher than its current level.
As well, the month a recession ends, the consumer confidence index sits at 72, on average. And finally, during an economic expansion, the consumer confidence index averages 102.
"Just to put a 53-reading into proper perspective. It's still recessionary," Mr. Rosenberg said in a note.
Then again, just as there are skeptics of the economic recovery, so too are their skeptics about consumer confidence readings. The blogger Accrued Interest is one of them, even as he warns about the health of consumers. On Tuesday, the blogger wrote:
"It's long been my view that I'd rather watch what consumers do than what they say. I can't remember how many times I've seen surveys of consumers asking things like do you plan on spending less this Christmas? Saving more for your children's college? These questions are like asking they people in your office if they are going to stick to their new diet. They'll all say yes, but will it actually happen?"
David Berman