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Signs inside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).STAN HONDA/AFP / Getty Images

With Tuesday's sharp rebound in the stock market and Wednesday shaping up to deliver more big gains, you might be tempted to think that this is the start of a meaningful rally from bear market lows. Here are a couple quick points to dissuade you from such optimism.

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, points out that the recent ISM readings on U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity for September, while still clinging to expansion territory, look awfully familiar. The ISM non-manufacturing reading slipped to 53 in September, exactly where it was in November, 2007.

The manufacturing index was 51.6 in September – also where it was in November, 2007. Call it a coincidence if you like, but Mr. Rosenberg noted that the recession began a month later, and the stock market went into a bear market tizzy.

Meanwhile, Mary Ann Bartels, head of U.S. technical analysis at Bank of America, argued that Tuesday's late-afternoon stock market bounce was an attempt to form a market bottom, but probably wasn't. Volume was too light, for one thing. As well, market bottoms take time to build – as in, months. She explains:

"This process can involve additional tests and/or undercuts of the 1100 and 1075 area lows. In the late October, 2008, to early March, 2009, the basing process from the climactic low in October for the S&P 500 undercut the prior lows by 10 per cent to 12 per cent, which suggests that a probe into the 985-910 is not ruled out. The 1020 area also remains a key support level. Resistance within a basing process for the S&P 500 is the 1150 to 1230 zone."

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