OrganiGram Holdings Inc. fortunes appear to have pivoted since the Liberals were moving ahead in the polls before the election.Getty Images/iStockphoto
Globe editors have posted this research report with permission of Mackie Research Capital Corp. This should not be construed as an endorsement of the report's recommendations. For more on The Globe's disclaimers please read here. The following is excerpted from the report:
The Canadian marijuana market is expected to grow fast and based on our model, it is still well under-penetrated, leaving room for significant growth and potential new entrants (assuming their facilities can be financed). We have forecast the peak Canadian marijuana market size to be over $2.5-billion in 2020, assuming full legalization down the road (over $1.1-billion in 2020 without full legalization) - some of these sales are being cannibalized to the black market via dispensaries.
Details of each segment within this industry are provided in this report, as we have constructed a detailed marijuana model to look at the Canadian opportunity. Our marijuana model assumes that the Canadian market would follow a similar growth trajectory and market penetration trend as has occurred in Colorado and Oregon. We have done a price sensitivity analysis of four different marijuana prices, looking at the total Canadian market size. Even if investors assume that our estimates are too high and assume our numbers are 50% lower than modelled estimates, the market potential is significant.
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