Let's look back on the performance of the 52 stocks recommended last year in our weekly column based on technical research. As usual, this report will cover a 12-month period from the beginning of December, 2009, to the same point in 2010, to allow last month's suggestions time to mature.
Despite the mid-2010 weakness, this period was an excellent time to be in the markets. In fact, 39 of the 52 positions are still open or were closed in the money, for a success ratio of 75 per cent.
We covered a wide variety of prices, from $1.79 (Great Basin Gold Ltd. , ahead 54.2 per cent) to $79.47 U.S (Chevron Corp. , which was up 15.1 per cent). The materials sector provided both the best and the worst results – Nevsun Resources Ltd. with a 131.7 per cent gain and Plains Exploration and Production Co. with a 13.3 per cent loss.
The average gain was 16.4 per cent for all 52 positions, not including dividends, which means the portfolio outperformed both the S&P 500 Index (up 7.4 per cent) and the S&P/TSX Index (up 11.9 per cent).
Where will the ideas come from in 2011? North American markets could stay in a narrow trading range for the first month or so, but then could rise towards targets of 1,400 for the S&P 500 and 14,500 for Toronto by year-end.
This will make stock selection difficult as the year begins, but the Canadian resource sector should come to the rescue as gold begins another assault towards the $1,500 level.
Secondly, the majority of energy stocks seem to be gathering strength and we will probably pick a few ideas from this sector. Financials may stay weak, but some of the information technology stocks, such as Descartes Systems Group Inc. , Sierra Wireless Inc. , Celestica Inc. , Intel Corp. , Novell Inc. , that topped out in 2000 and stayed in a narrow trading range since then, could come to the fore.
Happy investing for 2011!
What the Charts Said in 2010
Buy Date |
Recommended Company to buy |
Ticker |
Buy Price $ |
Jan 11, 2011 Price $ |
Price at close $ |
Closing Date |
% chg |
2009-12-5 |
Suncor |
SU-T |
37.91 |
38.24 |
0.9 |
||
2009-12-12 |
Sensient Technology |
SXT-N |
25.60 |
43.05 |
68.2 |
||
2009-12-19 |
Toromont Ind. |
TIH-T |
26.07 |
30.60 |
28.75 |
2010-4-19 |
10.3 |
2009-12-26 |
Lennar |
LEN-T |
13.36 |
19.10 |
43.0 |
||
2010-1-2 |
Rona |
RON-T |
15.45 |
14.85 |
15.20 |
2010-8-6 |
-1.6 |
2010-1-9 |
Chevron |
CVX-N |
79.47 |
91.44 |
15.1 |
||
2010-1-16 |
Shawcor |
SCL.A-T |
29.39 |
33.06 |
12.5 |
||
2010-1-23 |
MAG Silver |
MAG-T |
6.67 |
12.00 |
79.9 |
||
2010-1-30 |
Mosaic |
MOS-N |
53.51 |
77.13 |
44.1 |
||
2010-2-6 |
Gammon Gold |
GAM-T |
9.99 |
7.85 |
9.40 |
-5.9 |
|
2010-2-13 |
Bristol-Myers |
BMY-N |
23.91 |
26.06 |
9.0 |
||
2010-2-20 |
Cliffs Natural Res. |
CLF-N |
53.60 |
84.93 |
58.5 |
||
2010-2-27 |
Plains Exploration |
PXP-N |
32.81 |
32.78 |
28.45 |
2010-5-3 |
-13.3 |
2010-3-6 |
Great Basin Gold |
GBG-T |
1.79 |
2.76 |
54.2 |
||
2010-3-13 |
SNC-Lavalin |
SNC-T |
52.40 |
58.94 |
12.5 |
||
2010-3-20 |
Wal-Mart |
WMT-N |
55.34 |
54.41 |
52.60 |
2010-5-6 |
-5.0 |
2010-3-27 |
Galleon Energy |
GO-T |
6.76 |
4.04 |
5.90 |
2010-5-19 |
-12.7 |
2010-4-3 |
Agrium |
AGU-T |
70.99 |
91.27 |
28.6 |
||
2010-4-10 |
Jacobs Engineering |
JEC-N |
47.61 |
45.49 |
-4.5 |
||
2010-4-17 |
XTO Energy |
XTO-N |
47.67 |
takeover |
46.48 |
2010-4-29 |
-2.5 |
2010-4-24 |
Helmerich & Payne |
HP-N |
43.21 |
49.22 |
13.9 |
||
2010-5-1 |
Colgate-Palmolive |
CL-N |
84.10 |
79.18 |
81.55 |
2010-5-14 |
-3.0 |
2010-5-8 |
99¢ Only Stores |
NDN-N |
14.23 |
15.65 |
16.50 |
2010-10-8 |
16.0 |
2010-5-15 |
Atco 'X' |
ACO.X-T |
48.32 |
59.25 |
22.6 |
||
2010-5-22 |
Rogers 'B' |
RCI.B-T |
36.00 |
34.66 |
37.90 |
2010-10-26 |
5.3 |
2010-5-29 |
Nevsun Resources |
NSU-T |
3.16 |
7.32 |
131.6 |
||
2010-6-5 |
Finning Int'l |
FTT-T |
17.46 |
27.67 |
58.5 |
||
2010-6-12 |
Home Depot |
HD-N |
32.22 |
34.56 |
7.3 |
||
2010-6-19 |
El Paso |
EP-N |
12.68 |
13.77 |
8.6 |
||
2010-6-26 |
Astral Media 'A' |
ACM.A-T |
35.77 |
41.49 |
16.0 |
||
2010-7-3 |
Nike |
NKE-N |
67.86 |
84.52 |
24.6 |
||
2010-7-10 |
Metro 'A' |
MRU.A-T |
43.00 |
45.27 |
5.3 |
||
2010-7-17 |
Enbridge |
ENB-T |
51.17 |
55.30 |
8.1 |
||
2010-7-24 |
Tim Hortons |
THI-T |
35.60 |
42.05 |
18.1 |
||
2010-7-31 |
Family Dollar Stores |
FDO-N |
41.35 |
44.99 |
8.8 |
||
2010-8-7 |
CNR |
CNR-T |
65.99 |
66.14 |
0.2 |
||
2010-8-14 |
Newmont Mining |
NMC-T |
58.94 |
58.07 |
63.36 |
2010-10-13 |
7.5 |
2010-8-21 |
CCL Industries 'B' |
CCL.B-T |
30.17 |
29.90 |
-0.9 |
||
2010-8-28 |
Fronteer Gold |
FRG-T |
8.39 |
10.73 |
27.9 |
||
2010-9-4 |
Cliffs Natural Resources |
CLF-N |
67.08 |
84.93 |
26.6 |
||
2010-9-11 |
YUM! Brands |
YUM-N |
44.52 |
48.57 |
9.1 |
||
2010-9-18 |
99¢ Only Stores |
NDN-N |
18.06 |
15.65 |
16.50 |
2010-10-8 |
-8.6 |
2010-9-25 |
Boardwalk Real Estate |
BEI.UN-T |
44.09 |
41.88 |
-5.0 |
||
2010-10-2 |
Clorox |
CLX-N |
67.00 |
61.94 |
63.75 |
2010-11-2 |
-4.9 |
2010-10-9 |
Agnico Eagle Mines |
AEM-T |
73.48 |
71.24 |
78.50 |
2010-12-16 |
6.8 |
2010-10-16 |
George Weston |
WN-T |
77.79 |
83.54 |
7.4 |
||
2010-10-23 |
Loblaw |
L-T |
42.46 |
39.72 |
-6.5 |
||
2010-10-30 |
Autonation |
AN-N |
23.22 |
28.19 |
21.4 |
||
2010-11-6 |
Alaska Air Group |
ALK-N |
55.88 |
59.11 |
5.8 |
||
2010-11-13 |
Forzani Group |
FGL-T |
15.97 |
18.30 |
14.6 |
||
2010-11-20 |
Sherwin Williams |
SHW-N |
73.38 |
82.60 |
12.6 |
||
2010-11-27 |
Fortis |
FTS-T |
31.86 |
34.06 |
6.9 |
||
Source: Phases & Cycles |