A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
Energy-based hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand tweeted that ““If oil prices do not rise fast enough, $300 oil in a few years is not impossible” over the weekend, causing a social media stir. Mr. Andurand backtracked by later deleting the tweet , but an oil price of even half that amount would be a big deal for the global economy and hedge fund managers,
“The hedge fund manager, who runs oil-focused Andurand Capital Management LLP, also went against the conventional view that triple-digit oil prices will dampen demand growth. “So no, $100 oil will not kill the economy,” he wrote. “And we need +$100 oil to encourage enough investments outside of the U.S.””
“Oil Hedge Fund Manager Says $300 Oil ‘Not Impossible’” – Bloomberg
“Rising U.S. rig count knocks oil, but prices remain near 3-year highs” – Reuters
“What to Watch in Commodities: Aluminum, Shale, Ag Giants, China” – Bloomberg
“Oil at $75: the five factors driving the price” – Financial Times (paywall)
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BMO chief strategist Brian Belski compares the Canadian equity market to a coiled spring with all the bad news priced in,
“Canadian equities are like a tightly wound coil, with a significant amount of negativity priced in despite a broadly improving fundamental backdrop. Indeed, it has been a long winter as Canada-specific concerns surrounding trade, pipelines and housing have weighed heavily on relative performance. As such, we believe positive developments are more likely on these fronts which will ultimately drive the TSX higher on the year.”
“@SBarlow_ROB BMO: TSX a coiled spring (when it’s actually open for trading)” – (research excerpt) Twitter
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TD and RBC raised lending rates last week and Manulife economist Frances Donald believes it’s only a matter of time before indebted Canadians feel the subsequent financial pinch,
“‘The economy has never been as levered as it currently is, and the economy is far more interest sensitive than it has been in the past, to a degree that we don’t have certainty over how each interest rate hike is going to affect Canadian consumers,’ Frances Donald, senior economist at Manulife Asset Management, said by phone from Toronto. ‘All we know is it’s going to be painful, but how painful isn’t quite clear.’ .. Some 47 per cent of existing mortgages need to be refinanced this year versus 25 per cent to 35 per cent typically, according to Ian Pollick, head of North American rates strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in Toronto.”
“Jumping Mortgage Rates Further Tighten Debt Vise for Canadians” – Bloomberg
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Tweet of the day:
Diversion: “Say goodbye to Alexa and hello to gadgets listening to the voice inside your head” – M.I.T. Technology Review
Scott Barlow