Skip to main content

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

BMO economist Doug Porter highlights a re-resurgence in Canadian borrowing,

“Consumer insolvencies took a step back in November … And, last week saw a run of solid home sales and price figures for December, suggesting the resale market is starting 2020 on a firm footing in much of the country. In turn, that latter reality continues to be reflected in faster household borrowing. The latest monthly tally shows that mortgage credit continues to rebound, rising 4.6% y/y in November (versus 3.3% at the start of the year)… Given that the credit figures tend to lag the home sales/price data by months, we fully expect the pickup in mortgage growth to continue for a spell”

Story continues below advertisement

“@SBarlow_ROB BMO: Canadians piling on the debt again” – (research excerpt) Twitter

See Also: “Global debt shattering records: IIF” – Reuters

***

B of A Securities (formerly Merrill Lynch) quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian has been my go-to source for U.S. profit forecasts for years.

In a Monday report, Ms. Subramanian some important projections for the imminent earnings season, including a list of stocks she expects will beat revenue and profit estimates,

“ We nudge our 4Q EPS estimate to $41.50 (+1% YoY) from $41.80 (+2% YoY), given continued sluggishness in macro data, particularly on the manufacturing side. But consensus is too low, in our view ($40.59, -1% YoY), and we expect a 2% beat… Bottom-up margin expectations are too bearish: Analysts expect the biggest sequential margin contraction (-70bps for non-Fins) since 4Q18 (when tariffs started to hit), to 10.5%. But our Corporate Misery Indicator, a macro gauge of margins, ticked up in 4Q after five straight quarters of declines”

The strategists’ top stock picks for earnings season include Verizon Communications Inc., video game producer Activision-Blizzard Inc., and Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc.

Story continues below advertisement

“@SBarlow_ROB BoA's Subramanian: "Bottom up margin expectations too bearish" – (research excerpt) Twitter

“@SBarlow_ROB BoA: U.S. stocks likely to beat on top and bottom lines” – (full table) Twitter

***

Consultant group Avison Young released analysis on global real estate markets which included five major trends,

“Among the trends impacting real estate strategies and business identified by Avison Young: How investors are dealing with a low inflation, low interest rate world… Landlords, developers and occupiers need to pay increasing attention to local political activism, as today's street protests increasingly signal tomorrow's policy initiatives. (De)globalization: The pace of globalization is slowing, and in some areas is starting to reverse as nearshoring and the localization of supply chains gathers momentum. Building resilience: Cities across the world are leading the charge in responding to climate change… Placemaking an impact: Placemaking is becoming the focus of socially responsible investors looking for impact investment opportunities.”

“@SBarlow_ROB Avison Young: Top 5 trends in global real estate investing’ – (excerpt) Twitter

Story continues below advertisement

“ 2020 Commercial Real Estate Forecast Report” – (full report) Avison Young

***

Newsletter: “How fund managers ‘get paid to endure pain,’” – Globe Investor

Diversion: Humans are aging better, “Measuring biological aging in humans: A quest” – Wiley Online Library

Tweet of the Day:

Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Tickers mentioned in this story
Unchecking box will stop auto data updates
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

To view this site properly, enable cookies in your browser. Read our privacy policy to learn more.
How to enable cookies