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A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Morgan Stanley economists did nothing to help my skittishness about the short-term outlook for equities with this revelation,

“For the first time since 2013, no countries in the MSCI World Index are seeing earnings upgrades, something only seen previously around EMU/U.S. recessions. The TYD mentions of ‘slowdowns’ in company transcripts have reached the highest ever on our data to 2005.”

“@SBarlow_ROB MS: “No countries in MSCI World are seeing earnings upgrades” – (research excerpt) Twitter

“Stocks fall as data ring alarm bells while trade talks rumble on” – Financial Times (paywall)

“Goldman Sachs is warning that this year’s U.S. stock rally is about to stall” – Bloomberg

Counterpoint: “Re: the dreaded "earnings recession" - be sure to read Ben’s new one on how to think about it.” Ritholtz Wealth Management

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Also from Morgan Stanley, equity analyst Kai Pan detailed the changes to Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio changes, the results of Mr. Buffett’s particular microeconomic method of timing markets, in a report called “What has Mr. Buffett been buying (and selling) lately?”,

“Berkshire continued to build up in financials. Berkshire's 4Q18 13F filing showed additional investments in JPM (14.5m shares, ~$1.5b, +41%), PNC (2.2m shares, ~$275m, +36%), and TRV (2.4m shares, ~$300m, +68%) after initiating these positions in 3Q18. The company also significantly increased its shares in GM (19.8m shares, ~$665m, +38%). It initiated three new positions: Red Hat (RHT, 4.2m shares, ~$730m), Suncor Energy (SU, 10.8m shares, ~$300m), and StoneCo (STNE, 14.2m shares, ~$260m), a digital payment company in Brazil. Berkshire reduced holdings in PSX and UAL.”

“SBarlow_ROB How Uncle Warren’s been timing the market” – (research excerpt) Twitter

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CIBC did not mince words after a disappointing report on Canadian manufacturing activity Thursday,

“ Factory activity screeched to a halt to end the year, with a third consecutive decline in shipments. Manufacturing sales were down 1.3%, due again to a material drag from petroleum and coal products. Refinery shutdowns in November don't look to have come back online and the challenges only appear to have increased, with that sector down another 10% in nominal terms and volumes down 5%. Overall real sales were down 1.2% in December, almost matching the headline drop. The surprising fall in factory activity will take Q4 GDP tracking forecasts below 1%, particularly with next week's retail sales report not expected to show much strength. Soft GDP prints to close out last year and begin this one will keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines for at least the next few months.”

“@SBarlow_ROB CM: "[Canadian] Factory activity screeched to a halt to end the year" –(research excerpt) Twitter

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Nomura economists published “ Gauging the global growth slowdown” Friday,

“United States: Waning fiscal stimulus, tighter monetary policy and increased supply constraints will slow growth over 2019 and into 2020… Europe: While we have revised down our euro area GDP forecast, we see growth moving back towards trend over the next year. .. Japan: The recovery in economic activity is still rolling on, but growth momentum is weakening… Asia: In H1, we are cautious on Asia's economies, as accelerated growth slowdowns interact with property market corrections. In H2, we forecast economic recoveries, driven by a Fed pause, large-scale China stimulus and favourable terms of trade.”

“@SBarlow_ROB Nomura: "Gauging the global growth slowdown" – (research excerpt) Twitter

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“China is apparently doubling down on leverage.” – Bloomberg

Tweet of the Day: “@SBarlow_ROB Oh, Mr. Porter. What have you done?” – (BMO research excerpt) Twitter

Diversion: “A new chemical process could turn a quarter of our plastic waste into clean fuel” – M.I.T. Technology Review

Newsletter: “"Why do we keep making stupid investment decisions?"” – Globe Investor

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