Alberta Premier Rachel Notley wrapped up a two-day Kinder Morgan sales mission to Vancouver this week, where she tried to convince locals of the pipeline's merits. There may be more unenviable tasks in this world, but not many.
A member of Premier Christy Clark's security detail could be seen patrolling the halls of the hotel in which Ms. Notley was conducting media interviews – a precaution that was neither unwise nor unwarranted. Emotions are running high in the province, particularly in its largest city, where a great deal of the opposition to the project is based.
Alberta's New Democratic Premier has a tough sell. This is where the super-tankers will arrive in numbers to load up on crude oil once the pipeline expansion is completed. Residents, including First Nations, are worried about a spill destroying beaches and killing birds and marine life of all manner and description. And then there are those, and they number in the thousands, who believe there should be no further oil production, period – jobs and the health of the broader economy be damned.
Read more: Pipeline protests won't change decision to proceed, Notley says
Ms. Notley's sales venture is also burdened by the unintended consequences it creates.
Any success she has in persuading people in British Columbia to support Kinder Morgan will likely come at a cost to the B.C. NDP and its leader, John Horgan, a long-time and dear friend of Ms. Notley's.
Mr. Horgan and his party stand firmly against Kinder Morgan. Meantime, Ms. Clark, in recently suggesting the five conditions she set down for approval of the pipeline are close to being met, has all but given it her blessing. In other words, for voters in this spring's provincial election, the choice is fairly elemental: If you oppose the pipeline, you have the NDP or Green Party as options; if you endorse it, then the Liberal party is likely going to get your support.
Ms. Notley didn't want to suggest for a second she is here to steal votes away from Mr. Horgan, inadvertently helping a Premier with a strong conservative bent coast to victory. "I'm hoping to talk to moderate British Columbians who care about the environment but who are willing to look at the bigger picture a bit and are alive to the options that are available to B.C., Alberta and the Canadian economy," the Premier told me in an interview.
Ms. Notley repeated the economic case she insists can be made for not just the Kinder Morgan pipeline, but the oil and gas industry more broadly. In 2012, for instance, 44,000 British Columbians derived an income totalling $2-billion working mainly in Alberta's oil fields. She insists a pipeline will raise B.C.'s GDP, on an annualized basis, around $1-billion. She says there are people in British Columbia's forestry sector who are in real economic pain because of the state of the industry and could use some of the employment benefits the Kinder Morgan project could provide.
It is clear, however, Ms. Notley is trying to go after precisely the same people John Horgan is: those in the ideological middle who don't have hardened positions on pipelines and the environment. These are usually the same people who determine elections in British Columbia. The Liberals have their base, the NDP theirs, and then there is a group of 10 per cent to 15 per cent of the electorate in the centre that ends up deciding power. Throughout history, a strong economic message has most often resonated with this group.
I'd be surprised if Rachel Notley makes another appearance in British Columbia before next May's provincial vote. Any campaigning she does on behalf of Kinder Morgan will likely take place on the other side of the Rockies. But in her brief time here she made one thing clear: She will fight for the interests of her province even if it comes at a heavy political cost to an old friend.
Gary Mason