If nothing else, Manitoba's 41st election will be remembered for the desperate and often unseemly campaign tactics exhibited by NDP Premier Greg Selinger. Should Election Day forecasts prove to be accurate, it will not be an exit from politics of which he will be particularly proud.
The latest polls show Conservative Leader Brian Pallister and his party heading for a massive majority victory in Tuesday's vote. The numbers are not a statement on Mr. Pallister's charismatic leadership or brilliant fiscal plan for the province as much as it is a desire for change. After 17 long years, the public is tired of the NDP and, in particular, this Premier.
Mr. Selinger was aware of the uphill fight he faced from the beginning of the campaign. Consequently, he's helped make this one of the dirtiest, most personal political fights the province has witnessed in years. Early on, the Premier accused Mr. Pallister of being a homophobe. Then, he used the release of the Panama Papers to suggest his opponent was similarly using secret offshore tax dodges himself and challenged the Conservative Leader to release his tax statements.
Mr. Selinger even went so far as to invite reporters into the kitchen of his modest St. Boniface abode to show the media his own returns, a stunt of the worst order. Mr. Pallister said he owned property in Costa Rica but that was the only offshore investment he owned. He disclosed the financial details of that property but didn't offer up his latest tax return for viewing.
As the campaign hit the home stretch, Mr. Selinger said the Conservatives would cut funding for cancer-fighting drugs. The NDP had absolutely no evidence of this but went with it anyway. The Conservatives denied it and demanded an apology. It never came.
The fact that the NDP has stooped to this level of attack certainly betrays the hopelessness the party is feeling. And if the election plays out the way most expect, Mr. Selinger will have a lot to answer for personally in this defeat. In fact, many inside the party will lay this loss firmly at the leader's feet – and it would be difficult to argue with that viewpoint.
Support for the NDP began cratering shortly after the past election, one in which Mr. Selinger had campaigned on a promise not to raise the provincial sales tax. A year later, he did precisely that. Manitobans were outraged, but the Premier refused to back down. It was a stunning policy reversal that not only hurt the Premier's standing with the public, but also inside his own caucus.
In November 2014, five of the Premier's top cabinet ministers resigned in protest of his leadership – a mutiny unparalleled in Canadian history. Most leaders would have taken the hint and stepped aside. Not Mr. Selinger. He pressed on and got the party to hold a leadership contest, in which he narrowly prevailed.
It was a Pyrrhic victory. Mr. Selinger had the power of his position on his side and used it to make key strategic moves inside the party that helped cement the win. In the process, he lost the respect of many key supporters and swarms of others who are needed during election campaigns.
Should the NDP go down to defeat – and there hasn't been a poll that suggests otherwise – then Mr. Selinger will have to wear this. His decision to hang on to power instead of allowing a fresh face to attempt to repair relations with a cynical and angry public will be regarded as one of the most selfish political acts in recent years.
As for the expected winner of this contest, Mr. Palliser will have his work cut out for him. The province's financial liabilities continue to mount. Manitoba's debt-to-CDP ratio now stands at 36 per cent, fourth highest in the country – and climbing. Budget deficits have become routine. Economic growth is tepid. Like most Conservatives, Mr. Pallister is promising to bring fiscal order to the province; cutting waste while offering more services.
Mr. Pallister's personal popularity badly trails his own party's. He is not someone Manitobans are in love with. Nor are they particularly enthralled with his vision. They're just fed up with the other guys and appear ready and determined to throw them out.
Gary Mason