Prime Minister Justin Trudeau raises the hand of Liberal candidate Richard Hebert during a by-election campaign rally in the Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean on Oct. 19.FRANCIS VACHON/The Canadian Press
In the 2011 election, the federal Liberal candidate barely registered in the Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean with 4 per cent of the vote. In the 2015 election, the Liberal vote grew to 18 per cent, but it was still far behind the Conservatives – the party's worst result east of Saskatchewan.
So when the Liberals won Lac-Saint-Jean with 39 per cent of the vote in a by-election Monday, they made it clear they have expansionist designs in the province.
On the ground, the campaign showed that the Liberal Party's favourite tactic – knocking on as many doors as possible – is taking hold in Quebec, where it had been less popular than in the rest of Canada. Liberal officials said they hit 10,000 addresses during the by-election and vowed to continue using the tactic to a greater extent across Quebec.
"Our work's far from over," said Christine Poirier, the party's director of operations in Quebec. "We will continue to knock on as many doors as possible – to speak to as many Quebeckers as possible to hear their priorities and stay connected."
In terms of policy, the victory showcased the Liberals' ability to succeed at the ballot box without having a Quebec lieutenant or even a strategy specifically designed to cater to the province's political sensitivities.
Liberal officials said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is making it "a point of pride" that his offering in Quebec is basically identical to what he is doing across the country, with a focus on jobs, families and infrastructure spending.
Part of it comes from his lineage: Mr. Trudeau's father, former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, always opposed the constitutional recognition of Quebec as a distinct society. However, senior advisers said, the Prime Minister also believes that his political style, which is heavy on public consultations and optimism, can win over voters in every province.
"He never bought the idea that you had to do politics differently in Quebec. That came from his own nomination in Papineau, which he won by pounding the pavement, knocking on doors, persuading people and signing them up. It's old-fashioned, but hard work in the field pays off everywhere," said a Liberal official who agreed to discuss electoral strategy on the condition of anonymity.
The other federal parties took notice of the by-election victory, which left them wondering whether there are any ridings at this point that are not within the Liberal Party's grasp.
After digesting Monday's results, NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice said there "was no cause to celebrate" his party's fourth-place finish. Conservative MP Gérard Deltell said losing the seat and finishing in second place "was not the result we hoped for," adding voters had clearly opted "to side with the party in power.
"In two years' time it will be an entirely different story, as the people of Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec and all of Canada will have a chance to pass judgment on this government's wretched management of important issues," Mr. Deltell added.
Still, a new Léger poll, done between Monday and Wednesday, suggests the Liberals have not suffered from recent missteps by Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Heritage Minister Mélanie Joly. The Liberals are leading with 44-per-cent support in Quebec, well ahead of the Conservative Party (19 per cent), the Bloc Québécois (18 per cent) and the NDP (13 per cent).
The Liberals now have 41 of 78 seats in Quebec. The number could even grow in the short term if former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair retires and opens up his Montreal seat of Outremont to a by-election.
The Liberals spent months preparing for Lac-Saint-Jean. As soon as Conservative MP Denis Lebel announced his retirement in June, the Liberals conducted a poll to gauge their support in the riding. The results showed they had an 18-point lead.
By coincidence, one of the top Quebeckers in the Prime Minister's Office, deputy director of operations Claude-Éric Gagné, hails from the riding. He confirmed to his colleagues that, in his view, the race was winnable, sources said.
In late July, Mr. Trudeau showed up for a big street festival in Roberval, just ahead of an international swimming competition across Lac-Saint-Jean, where he was mobbed for hours by locals looking for pictures and handshakes. The Liberals decided to go big, sending half a dozen organizers from Montreal to run two campaign offices in the large riding.
Running for the Liberals was Richard Hébert, a local mayor. To boost his visibility across the riding, the party held a Quebec caucus summer meeting in Alma before the by-election launch and regularly sent cabinet ministers to campaign.
Then Mr. Trudeau returned for two days less than a week before the vote.
"Our leader is really popular – people like him a lot," Ms. Poirier said. "In addition, his policies are very appreciated, and we saw in Lac-Saint-Jean that people like things like the Canada Child Benefit and tax cuts for the middle class. That is the main key to our success."