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Canada is vying for a seat on the United Nations Security Council, along with Germany and Poland.EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP / Getty Images

Canada is about to discover whether its drive to join the most powerful council at the United Nations ends in triumph or humiliation.

At about 10 a.m. Tuesday, representatives from the world's 192 nations will gather in New York for an old-fashioned popularity contest. The prize: a two-year seat on the Security Council, an exclusive club that has the right to impose its will on other UN members.

For the first time in a decade, Canada is vying for a spot - and the contest could be close. A defeat would be an embarrassing rebuke to the Harper government, which has ramped up its efforts to win the seat in recent months. For the past 50 years, Canada has won every such campaign it has contested.

The odds appear to favour Canada, but races for the Security Council can defy prediction. Nations are notorious for promising to vote one way only to switch allegiances in the secret ballot (a former Australian ambassador once called this the "rotten lying bastards" factor).

Earning a spot on the council would burnish Canada's international reputation and provide a pulpit to advance issues in need of attention. While the five permanent members - the United States, Russia, China, France, and Britain - call the shots, the temporary members are courted for their votes, and in rare instances, can exert considerable influence.

First Canada must prevail at the ballot box. It is waging a three-way contest versus Germany and Portugal for the two seats allotted to its regional group. Since Germany is considered a shoo-in, the real tussle is between Canada and Portugal.

Canada benefits from strong support in many quarters, including fellow Commonwealth countries and French-speaking nations. Its recent push to improve the health of mothers and children in poor countries is another plank in its campaign.

Experts note that Portugal's bid is more robust than it might appear. In a body where there is often a backlash against bigger, more powerful nations, it helps to be an underdog. And Portugal can count on solid backing from Latin America and beyond.

On Tuesday morning, diplomats will assemble in the UN's main chamber for the vote, which is conducted with paper ballots. From the three contenders, they will select two favourites. To prevail, Canada must receive two-thirds of the votes cast. Normally the process wraps up within a couple of hours, but on one memorable occasion in 1996, it stretched for weeks as Guatemala and Venezuela battled through 47 rounds of inconclusive voting.

The Harper government, at first less than enthusiastic about raising Canada's profile at the UN, has embraced the campaign. Prime Minister Stephen Harper made two speeches there last month, once at a special summit on development goals and then at the UN's annual opening debate.

Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon has shuttled back and forth to New York during the past week for the final push, together with other government officials. Last week, Canada hosted a reception at the swank Colony Club for UN diplomats - the type of event considered de rigueur for countries in the running.

Some experts fret that Ottawa's belated zeal for attaining the Security Council seat means that Canada faces a tougher fight than it should. The Harper government has lashed out at critics of its campaign, particularly Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff, who had questioned whether Canada deserved the seat in light of the country's recent policies.

Like any political campaign, a bid for a spot on the Security Council is a combination of high-minded rhetoric and shrewd horse-trading. A country's broad national reputation is a poor guide to its likely success, noted David Malone, a former ambassador who helped mount Canada's last winning bid, in an academic article on the process. Instead, candidates must woo each country individually. They also engage in a "surprisingly brisk" trade in votes, Mr. Malone wrote, swapping support in the Security Council process for backing in other bodies, both inside and out of the UN.

What Canada would do with a seat, should it win, remains to be seen. The presidency of the Security Council rotates among its members, a practice which could give Canada an opportunity to advance an agenda, said Stewart Patrick, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington who is researching the UN.

Canada has an "enviable tradition internationally," he added. "It models itself as a global citizen and has tried to shape the moral and ethical environment in world politics, to the extent that there is one."

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