Charest sweats on positive jobs and economy figures

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The possibility of a spring provincial election is on the agenda of the Quebec Liberal caucus meeting this week, with the main obstacle appearing to be the government's disapproval rating that continues to hover around 70 per cent in the latest public opinion polls.

"A lot of people are talking about an election. We are in the fourth year of our mandate. So it's normal to be talking about it," said Minister of Culture Christine St-Pierre. "However our mandate ends in December, 2013. We know we are in an election mode. But it will be up to the Premier to decide."

In 2008, Premier Jean Charest repeatedly said there would be no election, then took his opponents by surprise by calling a snap vote. The opposition parties, including Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois and Coalition Avenir Quebec Leader François Legault, believe a similar scenario may be in the offing now.

"Madame Marois and Mr. Legault are obviously out there whipping up this issue of an election campaign," Mr. Charest said as he headed into the two-day Liberal caucus meeting. "We've just finished three years. We have two years in front of us. And we will go into an election campaign when we believe it is in the interest of Quebeckers."

The government plans to unveil its new budget near the end of March. The Liberals are hoping that Finance Minister Raymond Bachand can produce figures to reinforce the image that the Charest government is best equipped to steer the province through the uncertain economic times that lie ahead.

"The economy and jobs – that's the issue," Mr. Charest said.

But first the government must win approval of a new Mining Act that, according to Minister of Natural Resources Clement Gignac, is "indispensable" for implementing Plan Nord. However, the Parti Québécois has systematically blocked passage of the bill, which may force the government to impose closure to adopt the proposed legislation before calling any possible early election.

At the same time, at least a half dozen cabinet ministers and several backbenchers are considering quitting politics, given the uncertainty of a Liberal win. Their decision may hinge on when they believe Mr. Charest will go to the polls.

The opposition parties are certain that the decision to seek another mandate will be made within the next few weeks. And they believe the vote will be held in the spring. They argue that Mr. Charest will not want to wait until the fall and contend with the public hearings from the commission headed by Justice France Charbonneau looking into corruption in the construction industry, the awarding of public contracts and the financing of political parties.

"Mr. Charest won't take the chance of having his agenda sideswiped during an election campaign by the Charbonneau commission," Mr. Legault said last week.