They like him. But they may not vote for him.
Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty is still the guy more Ontarians turn to when asked who of the main candidates would make the best premier – even though his party is polling worse than it has in more than a decade.
It's the weird result of the same incumbency factor working against his party, which his opponents have painted as effete and out of touch; and in his personal favour, because it makes him a tried and trusted leader up against three electoral newbies.
In a Nanos poll conducted last week for The Globe and Mail, 29 per cent of those surveyed picked Mr. McGuinty as the best premier. Twenty-five per cent picked Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak, and 15 per cent NDP leader Andrea Horwath. Three per cent said Green Party leader Mike Schreiner would be best Premier, 7 per cent picked "none of them" and 22 per cent remain undecided.
Mr. Hudak and Ms. Horwath had both marginally improved scores compared to a similar survey in August; Mr. McGuinty's results remained within the margin of error.
But just as he hangs on to a lead as best premier, Mr. McGuinty's party is sagging in polls: 31.9 per cent of decided voters polled said they plan to vote Liberal, compared to 35.4 per cent for the Tories and 22.8 per cent for the NDP.
While that's the highest the NDP has polled since 2004, it's the Liberals' lowest in more than a decade.
The poll was conducted as a random telephone survey of 1,005 Ontarians between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1. It's accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Mirrored slumps for the two biggest parties compared to earlier this year indicate their negative ad campaigns are working all too well.
"Both negative campaigns have been effective … and the numbers come down. The other factor is [Jack Layton's]recent state funeral being held in Toronto and the focus on that," Mr. Nanos said. "Roll those two forces up and what we have are the Conservatives and the Liberals both down and the NDP up."
Early in the campaign as Mr. McGuinty guns for a third term as Premier, his incumbency looms large – and it's working both for him and against him.
"What naturally occurs from a government that has been in power for along period of time, there's a certain level of fatigue," Mr. Nanos said – and a recession-weary electorate isn't forgiving of incumbents.
"Roll up those factors and what we have is this downward pressure on the Liberals."
But on a personal level, he's a known factor up against three new party leaders. Mr. Hudak, Ms. Horwath and Mr. Schreiner are all going to the polls for the first time as provincial leaders.
"People just know less about the others," Mr. Nanos said. "What the Liberals are probably hoping to bank on is the other options seem risky compared to Dalton McGuinty."
Tellingly, Ms. Horwath's personal brand doesn't appear to have kept up with her party's political fortunes: She's sitting a couple of percentage points higher as a leader, but her party is enjoying a moderate uptick in support. That relative surge is thanks in large part to factors outside of her control – namely, successful attack ads by the two major parties, and an outpouring of goodwill accompanying public mourning following federal NDP leader Jack Layton's death last month.
"What actually stands out is the fact that the NDP have picked up support in the ballot box but their leader has not picked up a commensurate level of popularity," Mr. Nanos said. "This is one of their high points … of the past decade or so.
"The biggest question is, 'Can the NDP sustain the support?'"
Also of note is voters' decisiveness: It's unusual, Mr. Nanos said, to see more than 90 per cent of voters saying they know whom they're casting a ballot for more than a month before E-day. While he'd normally expect 15 to 20 per cent of people polling as "undecided," last week only 8.8 per cent said they have yet to make up their minds.
That number's likely to change: People usually become more wishy-washy leading up to a debate, hoping a chance to watch the candidates spar will help make up their minds. But Mr. Nanos said it's telling that, as the ranks of undeclared voters shrink, support for NDP and the Green party swell slightly.
"It suggests that the NDP have done a better job, at least in the short term, of attracting voters who are undecided in the last month."
The ground game going forward?
All three parties would be well served by injecting a little optimism and positivity into their pitches, Mr. Nanos argues. If attack ads are succeeding in turning voters off but not in winning them over to the attacker, that should be a cue to the Tories and Grits they could be a little more constructive. At the same time, the pressure's on Ms. Horwath to make good on a surge in support that's thanks to forces outside her control.
Oh, and don't mess up.
"When we look at he last number of provincial elections, the campaigns actually had a significant impact on the outcome," Mr. Nanos said. "We cannot underestimate the impact and importance of the campaign on the brands of the leaders."