THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST
Final forecast: Liberals heavily favoured to win most seats
Our election forecast, based on recent polls and historical data, projects the likelihood that a given party would win the most seats, if an election were held today. Our algorithm was designed in consultation with political scientist Paul Fairie (read more about how it works). This page will be updated often with new polls. Scroll down to explore the data.
If the election happened today, there is a ...
Seats each party would win if the election were held today:
Our predictions use polling numbers and other data to calculate each party’s chance of winning a particular seat (read our methodology for more on how it works). We run simulated elections in each riding 1,000 times. The average of all of these simulations gives us our national forecast.
Try it for yourself below: When you hit “new simulation,” winning parties are assigned for each seat based on our projection of how likely they are to come out on top.
The trend over time
We are regularly updating our model as we get closer to election night. This chart shows our evolving forecast of the number of seats each party is likely to win.
Our simulations are based on publicly available polls, including the ones below. You can examine the raw numbers and filter them based on methodology or which firms conducted the polls.
2011 - 2016
Margin of ErrorLess than
Sample SizeAt least
- Angus Reid
- Ipsos Reid
- Phone (automated)
- Phone (live)
- Phone/Online (combined)
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- Predictive model by Paul Fairie
- Development and design by Jeremy Agius and Julia Wolfe
- Produced by Chris Hannay
- Editing by Matt Frehner
Read our comprehenisve technical explanation covering the creation of this project.