Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures after signing a treaty to incorporate Crimea into Russia in the Kremlin in Moscow, Tuesday, March 18, 2014.Alexander Zemlianichenko/The Associated Press
Unacceptable, intolerable, illegal, illegitimate.
That's how the West has described Russian President Vladimir Putin's predatory moves in Ukraine, where a Moscow-backed referendum in the breakaway Crimea region was widely dismissed by the international community.
So will Russia continue to enjoy membership in the Group of Eight, the elite leaders club it joined in the late 1990s? If the answer is "no," how might the Group of Seven set about dismantling it? And will Mr. Putin even care?
It's possible, according to one global governance expert, that instead of expelling Moscow in the literal form of the word, the G7 leaders could instead collectively withdraw from the club. That would leave Mr. Putin sitting at a "G8" table alone – effectively, a G1.
"That's the way they'd do it," said Fen Hampson, a director at the Ontario-based Centre for International Governance Innovation. "It's a more elegant solution than formal expulsion."
There has been much confusion this week about Russia's status in the G8. There were reports that France said the G7 officially suspended Moscow's participation, but the French backtracked saying that's not what was meant.
Then on Thursday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the G8 will not meet until the situation changes. But her foreign minister soon after said Ms. Merkel was actually just alluding to old news that the G7 suspended preparations for the G8 Summit planned for Russia in June. "Suspended, however, doesn't mean that the G8 format is cancelled," Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, according to Agence France-Presse.
The G7 leaders – representing the United States, Canada, Germany, Britain, Japan, Italy and France – will meet next week on the margins of a nuclear security summit in The Hague to discuss Ukraine and, presumably, their next moves. Booting a nation from the G8, an informal group comprised of economies with varying dependencies on Russian energy supplies, requires a consensus that earlier this month seemed elusive.
We've heard the threats. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry raised the spectre of Russia's expulsion on NBC's Meet the Press on March 2. The next day, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Mr. Putin had led his country down a path that "could well see Russia exit the G8 entirely." Canada's foreign minister said this week Russia "absolutely" faces the possibility of ejection, and the Brits said the G7 should contemplate a new global order with Russia on the outs.
We've also heard some hesitation. Mr. Steinmeier two weeks ago made the case for allowing Moscow to keep its G8 membership, noting it's the "only panel where we Westerners talk directly to Russia."
There's growing evidence, though, that Mr. Putin isn't listening: phone calls with Ms. Merkel and U.S. President Barack Obama haven't inspired a change of heart, and Moscow was unfazed by Western sanctions targeting members of Mr. Putin's inner circle. Russia's ambassador to Ottawa basically called the West impotent when it comes to isolating his country, and said expelling Russia from the G8 would only hurt world stability.
But while Mr. Putin surely relished seeing supporters in Moscow's Red Square waving giant flags imprinted with his face this week, Mr. Hampson believes the Russian leader would, indeed, feel the sting of exclusion from the world's premiere club of "leading industrialized economies that are also democratic nations."
The major value of membership, Mr. Hampson said, lies in prestige and access. It's a unique forum where leaders can frankly exchange views and take collective positions on global issues. When Moscow was first invited, "it was recognition that Russia had arrived on the world stage – that it was a new democracy," he said.
As reported earlier this week, the Canadian government wants Russia to face clear consequences over its actions in Ukraine, and it expects the future of Moscow's G8 membership will be discussed at the emergency G7 meeting in The Hague.
"The $64,000 question being asked in every major Western capital is, 'How far do we want to go to ostracize Putin?'" Mr. Hampson said. "Being sent out of the classroom carries symbolism and humiliation."
Kathryn Blaze Carlson is a parliamentary reporter in Ottawa.