Skip to main content
john ibbitson

Here is a prediction: If Donald J. Trump were inaugurated as the 45th President of the United States, Bruce Heyman would quit the same day.

This would violate convention: American ambassadors submit their resignations upon the arrival of a new administration, but typically agree to remain at their posts until a replacement is approved by Congress. But Mr. Heyman, who was chosen by his friend Barack Obama as American ambassador to Canada, would not likely agree to serve for a single hour under a President Trump. And he would not be alone.

Simply put, a victory by Donald Trump in the Nov. 8 presidential election would be catastrophic for Canada-U.S. relations, as well as for the Canadian economy and for the Trudeau government's foreign policy. At best, relations between our two countries would descend into a chill unlike anything in our shared history. At worst, the world's two best friends could become completely estranged.

The prospect of a President Trump, while still highly unlikely, is no longer inconceivable. His smashing victory in New Hampshire on Tuesday positions him well for the South Carolina primary Feb. 20, for the first Super Tuesday, March 1, and for the second Super Tuesday, March 15. By then, many of the biggest states will have voted, including Texas, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan. If Mr. Trump is still standing strong March 16, then anything becomes possible.

Assuming Hillary Clinton prevails over Senator Bernie Sanders – a reasonable assumption, once the southern states have weighed in – the Democrats would be heavily favoured to win a presidential contest against Mr. Trump. But let's not forget that Ms. Clinton is a polarizing figure in her own right, and the FBI is investigating her alleged improper use of a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state. What if they laid charges in the middle of the campaign? Congratulations, Mr. president-elect.

At root, Mr. Trump's appeal is based on his claim that every country in the world is taking advantage of the United States, and that he will put a stop to it. First and foremost, that means expelling millions of illegal Latino immigrants, either renegotiating or terminating the North American free-trade agreement, and imposing a 35-per-cent tariff on automobiles entering the United States from Mexico. If he imposed tariffs on Canada as well – and why wouldn't he? – our automobile and auto-parts sector would collapse. Needless to say, the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement would be toast.

The financial sector would also be in chaos, as Mr. Trump moved "to tax Wall Street," as he put it in January. He favours higher taxes on hedge funds, and a graduated flat income tax, whatever that means, with the middle class paying less and the wealthy paying much more. Details, to put it mildly, are unclear, but if Wall Street suffered, Bay Street would suffer, too.

Most worrying of all is Mr. Trump's threat to impose a 45-per-cent tariff on goods imported from China unless that country pegs its currency at a level he finds acceptable. Such a tariff would almost certainly provoke a global recession, with Canada sharing in the pain.

Having threatened to ban all entry by Muslims into the United States, we can only imagine Mr. Trump's reaction when somebody explains to him that Canada welcomed tens of thousands of Syrian refugees in 2016. He might impose visa controls on Canada, or threaten to build a wall at the Canada-U.S. border, while expecting us to pay for it. No wonder a Leger poll this week said 65 per cent of Canadians were worried about the prospect of a President Trump.

As for relations between Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, they don't bear contemplating. It's hard to imagine two more ill-matched heads of government. But then, what allied leader would stand idly by while Mr. Trump dangerously escalated the fight against Islamic State, abrogated the nuclear agreement with Iran and demanded other NATO members take greater responsibility for defending Europe, while leaving Ukraine to the tender mercies of Russian strongman Vladimir Putin? (The two men seem to get along, which is perhaps not surprising.) The Western alliance on which Canada depends for collective security would lie in shambles.

One consolation during the four years of a Trump administration would be the congressional brake that would, we pray, frustrate many if not most of his ambitions. People chafe at the gridlock in Congress, but the founders designed their Constitution for this explicit purpose: to provide a set of checks against the ambitions of an autocratic president.

The other good news would be that this misery would only last four years. Because there is no way on Earth that Donald Trump could ever win a second term. Is there?

Follow related authors and topics

Authors and topics you follow will be added to your personal news feed in Following.

Interact with The Globe