Federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, right, speaks to supporters with the party’s by-election candidate in Trinity-Spadina, Adam Vaughan, during a campaign stop in Toronto on May 22, 2014.NATHAN DENETTE/The Canadian Press
Justin Trudeau has had to dance around the issue of oil pipelines in Ontario and Alberta, stepping between those who love them and those who hate them. Now we'll see if this is really the wedge issue his opponents can use to trip him up.
In two of the four ridings where by-elections will be held Monday, pipelines are an important issue – and those two constituencies, in left-leaning downtown Toronto and the oil-sands hub in Alberta, couldn't be further apart.
Mr. Trudeau's trying to make headway in both. But he faces different opponents in each riding, coming at him from each side – Conservatives who favour pipelines, and New Democrats who usually oppose them.
In Toronto's Trinity-Spadina, the Liberals have star candidate Adam Vaughan trying to win the seat vacated by the NDP's Olivia Chow, and the New Democrats are trying to use Mr. Trudeau's support for the Keystone XL pipeline as the key issue to fend them off. But in Fort McMurray-Athabasca, the oil-sands hub where the Liberals are mounting a long-shot challenge, the Liberal Leader faces charges he would hurt the oil economy by blocking the Northern Gateway pipeline.
Mr. Trudeau shed the Liberals' image as opponents of Alberta oil, but thread the needle on the issue. He's embraced oil-sands development and favoured Keystone, while arguing that Stephen Harper's failure to address greenhouse-gas emissions prevented political approval from Washington. But he's also opposed the Northern Gateway pipeline to the West Coast saying it could bring oil spills in the Douglas Channel.
In Fort-McMurray–Athabasca, the Liberal candidate, Kyle Harrietha, is seeking an unlikely upset by arguing the Conservatives have taken booming Fort Mac for granted. But as Mr. Trudeau campaigned there last week, he was forced to fend off accusations he'd hurt the oil patch by rejecting pipelines like Northern Gateway.
He did so by expressing support for oil pipelines to the West Coast – just not Northern Gateway. He backed the idea of twinning the existing Trans-Mountain pipeline to Burnaby, B.C., saying, according to the Fort McMurray Today newspaper, that he hopes the project gets the social license to proceed. In other words, he's in favour, as long as it's not too unpopular. He has also supported the Line 9 project to carry Alberta oil to eastern Canada. He sounds bullish on pipelines.
But his candidate in Trinity-Spadina, Mr. Vaughan, doesn't. He expresses worry about the environmental impact of the oil sands. At a press conference with a nodding Mr. Trudeau, Mr. Vaughan said all parties support one pipeline or another – but he was skeptical about Line 9, saying it shouldn't go ahead until there's a public consensus behind it.
Oddly enough, pipelines are probably a bigger issue in downtown Toronto than in Fort McMurray. The Trinity-Spadina by-election is a battle on the left, and the NDP is using Mr. Trudeau's support for Keystone XL to argue he favours oil over the environment.
"This is a progressive downtown riding," NDP candidate Joe Cressy said in an interview. "The environment has become a big issue in downtown Toronto. The Keystone pipeline has become a key distinguishing point in this election."
The NDP haven't been shy about that. And they've had help from activists who mounted a website called bigoiltrudeau.ca, aimed directly at Mr. Vaughan. One of their videos includes a jogger on Toronto's waterfront slipping on an oil-soaked duck, followed by shots of Mr. Trudeau declaring support for Keystone.
Together, the dynamics of the two ridings have the Liberals squeezed. For many voters, the issue isn't really pipelines, it's oil-sands expansion, and it's hard to appeal to both sides.
In truth, the other parties have danced, too. In June, the Conservatives approved Northern Gateway but distanced themselves from its fate. The NDP had said they favour Line 9 because the bitumen would be processed in Canada – making their stand on that pipeline more about jobs than climate – but recently, they muddied their stand.
Still, both have stressed one simple side of their message – the Tories are for pipelines, and the NDP against. That makes it easier to use it as a wedge issue. And if there's any two ridings where they should be able to use the issue to trip up Mr. Trudeau, it's these ones. That's why these by-elections are a test of Mr. Trudeau's dance steps.