What Harper can learn from Chretien and Mulroney about scandals

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After two months of beatings in the Commons, it's probably hard for Stephen Harper to recognize how much his political rebound depends on Parliament, and the MPs around him.

Moving past the Senate scandal will require not just turning back the attacks, but two other important priorities: tending to the MPs in his own caucus and stepping up his legislative agenda.

The fall sitting of Parliament will fizzle out this week without Mr. Harper, who is headed to South Africa for Nelson Mandela's funeral. The Commons is expected to rise this week for the Christmas break. Conservatives will feel relieved to escape.

The fall was supposed to be a reboot, but the Tory good news stories – the Canada-EU free-trade deal and more optimistic forecast for eliminating the deficit – were clobbered by a scandal in the Senate. The Prime Minister got a regular mauling from NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair in the Commons.

It is ending amid jitters in Mr. Harper's Tory caucus. Conservative backbencher Michael Chong's wonkish bill to strengthen backbench MPs against a leader's control became an unlikely cause célèbre, fuelled in part by the feeling that something's off track in Ottawa. There was speculation last week, hotly denied, that Mr. Harper might soon resign.

But as he heads to South Africa, he might want to seek some advice from former prime ministers in the delegation, Brian Mulroney and Jean Chrétien, who saw scandal in their time.

In the spring of 2002, Mr. Chrétien was taking a beating of his own over the sponsorship scandal, and was trying to stem the bleeding by promising new ethics rules and shuffling target ministers out of the limelight. Outside his office, one of his aides, when asked what the mood was like, compared it to D-Day scenes in a Hollywood film. "Did you see the first 15 minutes of Saving Private Ryan?" he said, adding: "But we're on the beach."

For Mr. Chrétien, the beach shifted. The scandal heightened Liberal caucus nerves, rolling into the rebellion fuelled by the ambitions of rival Paul Martin. Mr. Chrétien was soon forced to announce plans to quit.

If Mr. Chrétien's advisers were giving Mr. Harper tips now, they'd likely tell him his first priority should be his own MPs.

Mr. Harper doesn't face a rival or a rebellion. He's been in full control for so long, awing many MPs and striking fear into others. But there have been cracks – Alberta MP Brent Rathgeber quit in June citing a dictatorial PMO and its upstart, bullying aides. The odd senator or MP has raised qualms about tactics. When a PM falls into trouble, MPs become vote-counters. Internal unease can become the public narrative for a struggling government, and cracking the whip can spur it as much as stem it.

A prime minister seven years into power does have to worry that some Conservative MPs might start to see him – as Liberals did with Mr. Chrétien – as more important to their past than their future. This scandal marks a new necessity for Mr. Harper to tend his caucus, and the question is whether a PM used to demanding obedience can find new carrots if the stick causes resentment.

Brian Mulroney had scandals, too, from early in his first term. But he was known for his deft care of his big caucus of MPs, stroking egos and giving some of them tasks to make them feel their role in the team.

Mr. Mulroney, critically, also found a Big Thing – Free Trade with the United States – to fight with. Mr. Harper hoped free trade with Europe would be his big thing, but it's less of a wedge issue, and it was drowned by the scandal. It did, however, give MPs a reassuring talking point.

But in the Commons, the Conservatives' fall legislative agenda was light, with 16 bills, including a fair number of retreads and housekeeping measures. An ambitious agenda might have gotten lost this fall – but it will be crucial if the Conservatives want to move forward in January.

There's more to governing than legislation – but it helps drive a day-to-day agenda. It can enlist Conservative MPs, and engage idle hands. And right now, their job satisfaction is crucial to Mr. Harper.

Campbell Clark is a columnist in The Globe's Ottawa bureau.