New Brunswick Premier David Alward.Andrew Vaughan/The Canadian Press
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New Brunswick's two main opposition leaders do not have seats in the legislature, leaving them without a platform to directly take on Premier David Alward as he prepares to deliver a difficult budget that is likely to include tax hikes and deep spending cuts.
Add to this the fact that former Liberal premier Shawn Graham resigned his seat Monday after being found in a conflict of interest – and here is a province that looks like it is beginning to fray around the political edges.
It's an unusual situation for sure to see the Premier as the only political leader with a seat – but as Donald Savoie suggests, that matters less right now than the hard decisions Premier Alward is about to make in his March 26 budget.
"Alward is facing a heck of a problem on the fiscal side," says the Canada Research Chair in public administration at the Université de Moncton. "He has been kicking the can down the road for too long and it has caught up to him."
The deficit is at $411-million – it has more than doubled from the original projection for this year ($185-million). The Atlantic Provinces Economic Council, an independent think tank, says New Brunswick had the largest deterioration in fiscal performance of the three Maritime provinces.
Mr. Savoie points to Nova Scotia's NDP government that has made some hard choices. It raised the HST by two percentage points and cut post-secondary funding. In contrast, New Brunswick's university funding has gone up year after year and Premier Alward has avoided raising the HST, notes Mr. Savoie.
"He is not used to making tough decisions. So that is what is confronting him," Mr. Savoie.
Meanwhile, a tough by-election fight is shaping up in the eastern riding of Kent. This is the riding vacated Monday by former premier Shawn Graham. Last month, the province's conflict of interest commissioner said Mr. Graham was in violation of the rules for not recusing himself when he was premier from several cabinet meetings in which loan guarantees were discussed for a company that his father had worked for.
Although his government was defeated in 2010 after only one term, Mr. Graham held on to his riding and sat as a backbencher. He was replaced as leader in October by Brian Gallant, a young lawyer from Moncton, who has never served in the legislature.
"Premier Alward and his caucus have repeatedly stated that I should be in the Legislative Assembly as soon as possible," Mr. Gallant told the Globe. "So I can only assume that they will call the by-election right away to give me a chance to do so."
He shouldn't assume anything. By law, the Premier must call the by-election within six months but he has said his focus is on passing the budget. So a by-election may be off in the future.
While Mr. Gallant is anxious to run, NDP Leader Dominic Cardy is not. He's sitting this one out, saying he is concentrating on preparing his party for next year's election. Mr. Cardy, who was acclaimed leader in 2011, tried last year to win a seat in the legislature but came third in a by-election in Rothesay, a riding in the southern part of the province.
(The NDP do not have any MLAs; the Liberals have 13 and the PCs have 41. There is one independent.)
His party will run a candidate, as will the Tories, in this by-election. It promises to be a tough fight for all parties. With a provincial election more than a year away, it will serve as a referendum on the Alward government and how well it has sold its budget.
And while Kent is a long-held Liberal riding it is no longer a sure thing for the Grits, given the Graham debacle. It will be a test of Mr. Gallant's leadership and will also give the NDP an idea of its effectiveness on the ground.
Jane Taber is The Globe's Atlantic bureau chief, based in Halifax.