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U.S. President Barack Obama, right, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper hold a joint news conference in Washington Feb. 4, 2011.JIM YOUNG/Reuters

If Stephen Harper want to win some friends down Mexico way next week, all he needs to do is end the onerous visa requirements his government imposed on one of Canada's supposedly closest North American trade partners even as Ottawa was bugging Washington to make crossing the Canada-U.S. frontier faster and easier.

That won't make the Three Amigos summit a success but it might avert an embarrassing failure.

"It would be hard to imagine the Prime Minister going to Mexico without some movement on the Mexican visa irritant since it is a top-of-mind issue for his Mexican hosts," said Nik Nanos, president of Nanos Research.

Beyond that, few expect much to come of the less-than-a-day-long summit in Toluca hosted by Mexico's President Enrique Peña Nieto next week. Mr. Harper arrives a day early for bilateral talks but Mr. Obama will be in Mexico for only a few hours. The 'Three Amigos' is a catchy name, but the summits are irregular and often little more than photo ops.

"The difficult aspect of Toluca is the shadow cast over the summit by domestic U.S. politics, and Obama's growing weakness as his second term lame duck status sets in," said Christopher Sands, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, and a close watcher of Canada-U.S. and North American economic integration. "I suspect it will be a frustrating meeting for Harper and Peña Nieto, who will walk away with an even clearer sense of how difficult it will be for Obama – and for Canada and Mexico to rely on Obama – over the next three years."

Celebrating 20 years of NAFTA will be the easy part. Moving forward poses problems for what often seems to be three interlocking bilateral relationships rather than a trilateral.

"My expectations are low," said Christopher Wilson, of the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "The key issues in North American relations have all been cut up into their U.S.-Mexico and U.S.-Canada components," adding: the lack of trilateral priority is so evident that "even the summits have not been taking place annually any more."

Still, he hopes "the leaders express a clear understanding that when it comes to economic competitiveness, we are all in it together (and) we will sink or swim together as a region in the competitive global economy."

There's "no indication that any of the leaders excited by meeting except maybe the Mexican president because of the domestic location," said Paul Frazer, president of PD Frazer Associates, a Washington, D.C., political consulting firm specializing in Canada-U.S. issues. He said Ottawa needs to do more than just deal with the visa issue "to demonstrate it is truly serious about active, deeper bilateral relationship with Mexico."

Twenty years after NAFTA was signed, its success is obvious. But even ardent supporters believe it's time for the three big North American nations to do more.

"NAFTA was a success – but it's outdated and our economies need a more modern regime," said Scotty Greenwood, a senior adviser at the Canadian-American Business Council. She wants the three leaders to "speak with one voice on trade issues in the context of negotiations on the Trans Pacific Partnership."

But looking good back home may trump trilateral compromise. "Expect all three sides to use the trip to push domestic issues," said Andrew Finn, of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center. "For President Obama, this is a good pulpit for immigration reform," and for Mr. Harper the summit's "a good platform to talk about energy."

There's no shortage of big ideas that could usefully fill the 'Three Amigos' agenda.

Senior U.S. officials want energy on the table, especially the shale gas and oil plays, Canada's vast oils sands booms along with Mexican reforms of its state-owned firm, that have transformed North America into a global oil superpower. A co-ordinated continental energy strategy is also being promoted by the Mexican government. "This is a huge geopolitical and political change in that North America becomes – even more so than it has already been – a powerhouse with the cheapest, and cleanest energy, which is gas," Mexican Ambassador Francisco Suarez said last week.

But energy flows bedevil the trilateral relationship at least as much as they lubricate it. No starker an example exists that the long-delayed decision on Keystone XL, which may get kicked even further down the road by Mr. Obama as Democrats cast a worried eye on next November's mid-term elections.

"It isn't clear that Obama could approve Keystone even if he wanted: his position is too weak and he is safer continuing to stall," said Mr. Sands.

Energy abundance cuts both ways.

"The U.S., Canada and Mexico are fortunate in terms of the North American energy revolution," said Mr. Nanos, adding: "The big question is will this result in drift or serious talk about greater energy co-operation."

To make sure the Three Amigos have something to boast about, even if the big issues like immigration, energy, regulatory integration and security data swapping, get little more than lip service, officials preparing for the summit indicate that a plan to make is easier for university students from all three countries to study in either of the other two awaits the leaders' stamp of approval.

Paul Koring reports from The Globe's Washington bureau.

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