U.S. President Donald Trump sits during a meeting with Chief Executive Officer of Intel Brian Krzanich in the Oval Office Feb. 8.JOSHUA ROBERTS/Reuters
The Canadian government is doing all the traditional things to foster relations with Donald Trump, reaching out to cabinet counterparts quickly and trying to find common ground. But there's one key thing that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau can't know: which Donald Trump he is going to get.
After all the legwork that Canadian ministers have done in Washington, will it be a President who reflects the new administration's friendly words about Canada, or the President who picked a fight with Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull?
That's going to be the big question hanging over Mr. Trudeau's first face-to-face meeting with the new U.S. President. That's supposed to be soon – on Tuesday, White House adviser Kellyanne Conway told CNN that it will be next week, though Mr. Trudeau's office said they haven't confirmed a date. But it's not just the leader-to-leader meeting: This question could hang over Canada-U.S. relations for months.
There's an unusual kind of apprehension for Mr. Trudeau's government. The PM has decided that the U.S. relationship is Canada's top national interest, so he's working to get along. But it's clear some Canadians, and many Liberal voters, are itching for Ottawa to stand up to Mr. Trump in some way. And there's an extra layer to the tension, expressed by several government insiders: The last thing they want is to be the target of one of Mr. Trump's tweets.
There have been occasional bouts of assertiveness. Mr. Trudeau responded to Mr. Trump's travel ban by tweeting Canada would welcome Muslim refugees. And on Wednesday, after meeting new U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland warned that if the U.S. imposes new trade tariffs, Ottawa will respond in kind.
But mostly, Mr. Trudeau's government is doing what Canadian governments must do when faced with a new U.S. administration: trying to form relationships and gather intel. Ms. Freeland wasn't the only minister in Washington this week; Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan and Finance Minister Bill Morneau were meeting U.S. officials, too. But Mr. Trump's in not the typical U.S. administration.
On trade, the most critical issue to Canada, Ms. Freeland told reporters after her meeting with Mr. Tillerson that it's too early to understand U.S. plans for renegotiating NAFTA. Mr. Trump's senior trade officials have not yet been confirmed, she noted, so she had a general conversation about trade with Mr. Tillerson. The good news, she said, is that when she made the case that Canada-U.S. trade is mutually beneficial, it was "like pushing on an open door."
Mr. Trudeau's government has tried to use another area high on the Trump administration's priorities, security, to try to get closer. If the Trump administration views Canada as a good ally, the reasoning goes, it will be friendlier in all areas, like trade. So Mr. Sajjan talked to Mr. Mattis about U.S. security priorities, Canada's contribution to NATO, and a potential Canadian peacekeeping mission. Mr. Mattis, a former Marine general, spoke in glowing terms of the Canadian military.
But what will matter to Mr. Trump? Australia is a stalwart U.S. ally, but he berated Mr. Turnbull over an agreement to transfer a relatively small number of refugees. It is not yet clear how Mr. Trump rates allies. He declared NATO obsolete during his election campaign, but Mr. Mattis has since insisted it is "vital." And yet Mr. Trump, according to a source cited by Politico, had an outburst with François Hollande about NATO in a Jan. 28 phone call, telling him that France can protect Europe, but the U.S. "wants our money back."
It's not necessarily easy for Mr. Trudeau to align his policies. If NATO contributions really matter to Mr. Trump, he might pressure Canada to spend billions more. If it's counterterrorism the President cares about, he might only care if Canada joins Mideast missions, not NATO ones, or UN peacekeeping. And Mr. Trudeau might find his Liberal voters don't want him to sign on to Mr. Trump's security agenda.
The bigger question is still figuring out Mr. Trump. It's not only hard to tell if the signals from his officials reflect his views, it's hard to tell if they'll change, or be sidetracked by a comment, a conflict, or a tweet. Mr. Trudeau has to strike a tactical balance, but when he goes to Washington and stands beside the President, he can't be sure what he's going to hear.
Campbell Clark