Newfoundland Premier Kathy Dunderdale holds a press conference on the ongoing power disruptions, in St.John's on Jan. 5, 2014.PAUL DALY/The Canadian Press
The winner becomes premier of Newfoundland and Labrador – but so far there's little interest in the prize.
With Friday's deadline for prospective candidates quickly approaching, only one man, fisheries mogul Bill Barry, has acquired the requisite signatures, put down his $10,000 deposit and formally declared for the leadership of the governing Progressive Conservative party. A second businessman, Frank Coleman, may be joining him – and just in the nick of time.
No cabinet ministers or MHAs, current or former, have come forward, however.
This is not at all what Tories in the province were hoping for when Premier Kathy Dunderdale resigned suddenly in January. The hope then was for a big enthusiastic delegated convention, scheduled for July 5 and 6, to show renewal for a party that is slumping badly in the polls and needs a boost if it wants to hold on to power.
"You want it to be very competitive," said John Crosbie, the province's former Lieutenant-Governor and Mulroney cabinet minister. "It helps the party if there is a very lusty leadership campaign leading up to electing the new leader, and this is certainly going to make less valuable from a publicity point of view the situation for the PC party in this election."
Mr. Crosbie chalks up the lack of interest to several factors, including the expense for such a risky venture – and the difficulty in attracting contributions that must be publicly disclosed.
The party has set the spending limit for the leadership contest at $350,000.
"Unless you are independently wealthy it is getting more and more difficult to get people to donate because now everyone insists there has got to be full revealing," Mr. Crosbie said. "They (the potential donors) now know that they are going to be identified when the competition is over and not only will their name be used but the amount they gave and to who will be made public."
A recent VOCM-Abacus Data poll of 500 eligible voters in the province also helps to explain the dearth of candidates. According to the poll, the Liberal opposition is poised to form the next government. It has a 15-point lead over the Tories – 49 per cent compared to 34 per cent. Add to that the fact the Tories will be trying for a fourth mandate in the election, expected next year – a difficult task, given the polls.
"I think most people who are reflecting or have reflected on entering the race … are having trouble seeing the job as more than a short-term assignment," said Tim Powers, a native son and Ottawa consultant, who was encouraged to seek the leadership but decided against it. "Now that may not be the case, as campaigns do matter and things can change quickly in politics, but serious people when they take cold hard looks at such things likely see a limited horizon."
Memorial University political scientist Alex Marland is more blunt: "It's kind of a thankless task."
In addition to the low polls, Mr. Marland suggests that the PCs have failed at succession planning.
"What happens is with populist premiers and someone with such a strong personality like Danny Williams [former premier] is you don't tend to recruit independent-minded future potential leadership candidates," he said.
Mr. Marland noted that the party did not go through a regular leadership contest when Mr. Williams resigned in 2010 after serving as premier since 2003. Ms. Dunderdale's leadership bid was not challenged.
"So this is the second time we are seeing this," he said.
The reluctance of Tories to jump into the race contrasts with the recent and much more energetic Liberal leadership that saw five candidates compete for the top prize. Dwight Ball, an MHA, won the race. He disclosed that he spent nearly $315,000 of which he personally gave $223,000.
However, Leo Power, a prominent Newfoundland businessman and senior fundraiser for the PCs, is optimistic that more candidates will join the race. He says he knows of at least five people with serious credentials who are mulling it over.
"We're at the end of a 10-year run and there is only a year or so left before the general election and people are treading cautiously, but I think we have a good opportunity to win the next election with new leadership," he says.
Meanwhile, Mr. Crosbie has a prescription for future contests and a way for candidates to avoid going bankrupt: "In the old days you got money from wherever you could get it and you didn't have to reveal where you got your money from … but this is all changed," he says. "I believe this is going to be a real problem for leadership conventions in the future unless some way is found of having governments arrange financing or making it easier for candidates to get financing."
Jane Taber is The Globe's Atlantic bureau chief.