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Alberta Premier Alison Redford speaks to the media on March 18, 2013.DAVE CHAN/The Globe and Mail

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A short spring sitting of the Alberta legislature wrapped up last week, likely to the relief of members of the Progressive Conservative government who were hammered over issues such as a budget deficit, cuts to the program for Albertans with disabilities, and a backbench MLA with an undisclosed trail of debt in his business dating back a dozen years.

But the undercurrent running though all of Alberta politics this year is anticipation before a November party leadership review. It could be Premier Alison Redford's greatest political test yet. In fact, opposition parties say the leadership review even affected legislature business.

"That leadership review is hanging over them like the Sword of Damocles," says Alberta Liberal house leader Laurie Blakeman, referring to the Greek parable meant to explain how the powerful live lives fraught with anxiety about their status and security.

Ms. Redford is leading a government rocked by lower than expected oil revenues. She is taking heat from right-leaning Albertans for taking the province back into debt territory and flak from the other side for cutting social programs, including palliative care and a program for adults with developmental disabilities.

This comes six months before she faces a party leadership review by her own MLAs, the party's executive members, federal Conservative MPs, and party delegates. While half a year is an eternity in politics – just ask B.C. Premier Christy Clark, who was widely expected to lose the election earlier this month – polls showing Ms. Redford's waning popularity is a concern to long-governing Alberta Tories, who have in the past been quick to toss leaders failing in the crowd-pleasing department.

Even though past Alberta PC governments have been accused of prematurely cutting off debate, the opposition parties say the government moved to a new level of rushing bills during the spring legislative agenda. NDP MLA Rachel Notley says less legislation than ever was introduced, and describes the Redford government as appearing "vulnerable."

But the Alberta Liberals and NDP also believe the Official Opposition Wildrose – which was relentless in its criticism of the Redford government spending and expenses controversies in the fall sitting – is now holding back some fire against Ms. Redford. Both Ms. Notley and Ms. Blakeman say they saw a softening in the Wildrose attacks against Ms. Redford, and they believe it's because the Official Opposition wants the premier to survive the fall leadership vote so the Wildrose can take her record to task in the 2016 election.

"You could tell the day that the Wildrose decided to back off and not to push her so hard," Ms. Blakeman says.

However, Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith, who leads the largest and best organized Official Opposition Alberta has seen in decades, says that's not the case. She says her 17-member caucus is responding to criticism they were too focused on "ethical challenges" of the Redford government, including the expenses of senior bureaucrats, and have now decided to focus on policy missteps, including the budget and health and seniors care. Most of those questions were directed at cabinet ministers rather than the premier, she said.

"They didn't put forward legislation that was all that controversial that we had a big problem with," she says.

Ms. Smith too says it was obvious that the premier wanted the shorter legislature session, light on substantial legislation, so she could get out to the summer barbeque circuit and also move forward on a promise to spend part of the summer camping in a Winnebago in order to interact with Albertans.

"She's hoping to see her approval ratings go up. And we'll have to see what her party does. It would be highly unusual for a party to turf a leader after only two years, especially after winning one of the biggest majorities," Ms. Smith says. "They have to make a decision about whether or not Ms. Redford can see them through to another victory in 2016 or if their confidence in her ability has been so shaken that they want to set the reset button again."

However, deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk says the government has adjusted to the Wildrose attacking them in "playground politics" style, including focusing on scandals over substance. He says while the opposition parties will focus on popularity contests, the Redford government is focused on issues such as market access for Alberta exports such as oil and agricultural products. In fact, he says he and the premier will travel to meet with Ms. Clark's government as soon as the B.C. premier has announced her new cabinet, with pipelines being a key talking point. Mr. Lukaszuk says in the leadership review, Ms. Redford will be judged based on how effective she is at governing and representing Alberta's interests.

"There's real significant work to be done," Mr. Lukaszuk says. "If we don't penetrate new markets for our staple products, we're done."

The Alberta legislature is set to resume Oct. 28, a few weeks before the party's Nov. 22 or 23 leadership review vote.

Kelly Cryderman reports from the Calgary bureau.

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