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The Conservatives will not, repeat not, have Parliament prorogued during the winter break. Ain't gonna happen. Put it out of your mind. Nothing to see here. Move along.

But this does give us an opportunity to look at where the Conservative legislative agenda is headed in 2012.

The prorogation rumour has been circulating for weeks, prompted by the speed with which the Harper government is pushing through some major bills. It cropped up again Monday in several places, including this newspaper.

According to a theory circulated mostly by the opposition, the Tories are using closure to get their most important bills passed so that they can bring down the hammer on Parliament right after the House rises for Christmas, which will allow Stephen Harper to present a new Speech from the Throne in February.

Why do the Tories need a new Throne Speech? To lay out a new agenda once all that legislation is passed and to try to reframe their economic policies in light of a threatened recession. This is the general reasoning of this theory/rumour/gossip.

But numerous government officials, speaking on background, vehemently insist the idea is nonsense.

The Tories say they are pushing through Bill C-10, the omnibus crime bill, because they promised during the election campaign to pass it within 100 sitting days, which means the Commons must approve it before adjourning in December.

The bill ending the Wheat Board monopoly needs royal assent by Christmas – it cleared the House Monday night – so that farmers, among others, will be able to prepare for the changes in time for spring planting.

The bill to add 30 MPs to the House of Commons – to ensure Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta are less underrepresented – must be law by the end of the year so that Elections Canada can create the new ridings in time for the next election.

And the budget implementation legislation needs to be signed by Christmas on the grounds that you should not introduce a new budget before you've passed the old one.

But that still leaves plenty of business to fill the calendar when Parliament returns Jan. 30.

There's the new copyright act, which has died on the order papers of many a previous parliament, but which could actually make it into law next year, provided it's left alone. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney's human smuggling legislation would also suffer from prorogation.

And then there are the two Senate reform bills, which, like the poor, are always with us.

There are trade agreements with Panama and Jordan that need to be ratified. And Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's legislation to create pooled retirement plans for workers without company pensions has only just been introduced.

Add in the February budget, and the spring session should be reasonably full even if no additional bills get put forward.

That said, the Harper government should have passed everything it promised in its election platform by the time the House rises in June for the summer recess. So here's a prediction: The Conservatives will have Parliament prorogued in Summer 2012, and will present a new Speech from the Throne on Sept. 17. Mark it in your calendars. But only in pencil.

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