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letter from quebec

Premier Jean Charest smiles after survivinga confidence vote at the Quebec National Assembly on Nov. 24, 2010.POOL/Reuters

Given the troubled state of Quebec politics, winning Monday's by-election in the riding of Kamouraska-Témiscouata should be a sure thing for Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois.

The Liberals have held the riding for the last 25 years but with the numerous scandals and allegations of corruption plaguing Premier Jean Charest's government, the PQ could be expected to command a comfortable lead. Not so. The sovereigntists finds themselves neck-and-neck with the Liberals in a race still too close to call.

CHAREST'S TO LOSE

When intergovernmental affairs minister Claude Béchard died of cancer in September, after representing the riding for 13 years, Mr. Charest made all the right moves to secure victory.

First, the government awarded the Montreal subway contract to the Bombardier-Alstom consortium. Close to 500 new metro cars will be assembled at Bombardier's La Pocatière facilities located in the heart of the riding, just south-east of Quebec City. The deal will allow for the recall of 400 workers at the plant and the hiring of several hundred more over the next eight years.

The contract represents a major economic boost for the region and one of the reasons why voters might be having second thoughts about ousting the Liberals despite witnessing a government mired in scandals and controversy for months.

Mr. Charest also postponed changes to the electoral map that proposed to eliminate the riding altogether against the will of angry constituents. He then convinced the riding's former MNA, France Dionne to abandon a prestigious job as Quebec's representative in Boston and make a political come-back as the Liberal candidate.

The party can also count on a wave of sympathy for the late Mr. Béchard as well as an impressive organization mounted by him over the years that will help Liberals get the vote out on Monday.

JOBS V. SCANDAL

Should the Liberals win, Quebec Solidaire MNA Amir Khadir summed it up best, saying opposition parties will need to ask serious questions about their failure to tap into voter anger and offer a credible alternative.

"The opposition - including my own party - will need to ask why in the current context it is unable to project hope in a riding like Kamouraska-Témiscouata and bank on the anger of the population to capture this hope and transform it into votes," Mr. Khadir said.

Mr. Charest needs a win to silence his critics and prove his argument that economic prosperity carries more weight with voters than the allegations of corruption laid against his government. If he can survive the by-election, like he did the opposition's no-confidence vote Wednesday, then the Premier will have a leg to stand on when he defines his government's agenda for the second half of his mandate. Mr. Charest plans to set an economic course promising voters jobs and prosperity, which he will likely define during an inaugural speech when the National Assembly reconvenes in February after the winter break.

Defeat in the by-election, however, would bolster claims that Mr. Charest's reputation has been so seriously damaged by allegations of corruption that he has become a lame-duck leader.

A PQ defeat, meanwhile, would signal concerns about Ms. Marois's leadership credentials. Her inability to win when voter approval of the Liberals is at an all-time low, would strike a major blow to party morale.

THE POLITICAL FUTURE

A by-election defeat won't have any immediate effect for either leader: A PQ victory doesn't threaten the Liberals' slim majority in the National Assembly and Mr. Charest's political future will be determined by more than the result of a single by-election. A Liberal victory won't have a lasting effect either on Ms. Marois's leadership, even though she faces a confidence vote from PQ delegates at the party convention next April.

More important than the by-election results will be the long-term impact the myriad scandals have on the Liberals in their refusal to hold a public inquiry. The police investigation may lead to the prosecution of criminals but only a public inquiry can help dismantle a system of favourtism and influence peddling that has crippled the government's integrity.

Final judgment by voters won't be passed until the next election, at least two years away. Until then, public opinion on the issue will dictate Mr. Charest's political future - and determine whether he should stay or go.

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