Lisée’s leadership to be tested as Parti Quebecois hold confidence vote Saturday

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Normally, a political leader one year into the job and one year away from his first general election has nothing to worry about with a leadership review vote.

The Parti Québécois is no normal party.

Jean-François Lisée, chosen PQ leader last October after the resignation of media baron and one-year PQ leader Pierre-Karl Péladeau, faces a vote of confidence by party activists Saturday afternoon.

Leadership reviews at Mr. Lisée's stage are usually a confidence-boosting rubber stamp. The accompanying party congress is meant to set out some platform options and give a shot of adrenalin to the leader and members.

While Mr. Lisée is unlikely to be forced out of office, he's been jumping through burning hoops to bolster support and reassure the militant wing that will determine his future that he takes Québécois identity seriously. He's been burned a couple times in a process that has exposed the dire state of Quebec's main separatist party.

Mr. Lisée spent recent days burnishing his armour as defender of the French language. He proposed choking off funding to the English junior colleges that are drawing students, which many nationalists would like to see perfecting their French instead. It's an unpopular idea among Quebeckers and only sells well deep inside the party.

He launched a broadside against the Prime Minister over irregular border crossings by calling asylum seekers "Justin Trudeau's guests." He earned the rebuke of his own party elders who found the language describing desperate migrants to be ugly and divisive.

During a campaign-style event this week that would usually be saved for the party congress this weekend, Mr. Lisée insisted he's only standing up for Quebec values. He's not nervous about the vote, he said.

"I'm hoping [he vote] will give us a big momentum boost and will give us a program to appeal to all Quebeckers," Mr. Lisée said. His goal for the leadership vote? "One hundred per cent," he said smiling.

One reason Mr. Lisée needs to build momentum going into the weekend and to appear especially tough on immigration and language stems from the risky gambit he hoped would make the PQ electable in the next provincial election. He promised to hold off on calling a referendum until the theoretical second term of an eventual PQ government, a move designed to assuage nervous voters that displeased party hardliners. He barely squeaked out a victory with 50.6 per cent of party votes on a second ballot and the PQ has slipped in polls among the general electorate.

"He's the first PQ leader in the history of the party who did not have an easy coronation, or at least win by a staggering majority," said pollster Christian Bourque of Léger Marketing. "Things are stacked against him from the start."

So far Mr. Lisée, a onetime strategic adviser to former premier Jacques Parizeau, is not terribly popular among the people, either. A poll conducted in late August for The Globe and Mail showed the PQ in third place at 22 per cent support – eight points down from when he took over. The Liberals lead at 32 per cent – also down from a year ago – while the conservative Coalition Avenir Québec has risen to 28 per cent on promises to be strict on immigration and to crack down on religious symbols in public services. The PQ is also having its flank nibbled away by Québec Solidaire, a left-wing separatist party that is the most pro-immigration among the parties and sits at 12 per cent.

Under party rules, Mr. Lisée needs at least 50 per cent under to remain leader. However, precedent may put the threshold higher than that. Bernard Landry resigned in a fit of pique in 2003 after receiving 76 per cent. (He later said he regretted the decision.) Conversely, Lucien Bouchard stayed on with an identical result.

With an election a year away it seems unlikely Mr. Lisée would be forced to resign with 76 per cent, Mr. Bourque said.

"Anywhere between 50 and 76 per cent and things will be interesting," he added.