There is no good news for Stephen Harper, Michael Ignatieff or Jack Layton in Nik Nanos's latest national opinion poll.
"I think we are in a political rut," Mr. Nanos told The Globe.
Released Wednesday morning, the Nanos Research survey shows Mr. Harper's Conservatives are still "mired" in minority territory while the Liberal and NDP leaders are running neck-and-neck in terms of who Canadians think would make the best prime minister - 15.5 per cent for Mr. Ignatieff compared to 16.4 per cent for Mr. Layton.
And both men are far behind the Prime Minister, who is polling at 28.4 per cent - but even then, Mr. Harper's numbers have eroded over the past year.
"The research suggests we are still at a political impasse," Mr. Nanos said. "The Tories are mired in minority, Ignatieff is tied with Layton in terms of leadership and the NDP numbers are flat."
He added: "Any sort of breakthrough will require the parties to 'jump-start' their support."
The Conservatives are leading the Liberals in national support by about five points - 37.1 per cent of decided voters for the Tories compared to 31.6 per cent for the Grits. The NDP is polling at 15.4 per cent, the Bloc is at 10.8 per cent and the Green Party is at 5.2 per cent. There were 19. 2 per cent of respondents undecided.
Regional breakdowns reveal some potential tight provincial contests. The Tories are leading in Atlantic Canada, which is usually considered a Liberal base, with 42.4 per cent backing Mr. Harper's team compared to 32.7 per cent for Mr. Ignatieff's.
In vote-rich Ontario, the Conservatives are also polling ahead of the Liberals, 40.9 per cent for the government compared to 35.5 per cent for the opposition.
"I think part of the challenge in our current environment is that it is hard to generate a breakthrough moment or excitement in politics when three of the four top federal party leaders are well-known commodities," Mr. Nanos said.
"Something new needs to be introduced to break this impasse - it could be a bold vision, a spectacular blow up or something that sheds a new positive light on the main party leaders."
Mr. Nanos also looked at what Canadians are most concerned about. The economy and health care emerged as the two big issues of the day with 24.2 per of poll respondents saying the economy and jobs were of top concern compared to 21.5 per cent who listed health.
The pollster noted jobs have "nudged ahead" of health care. He attributed this to the "re-emerging concern about the state of the economy and the fragile economic recovery."
Meanwhile, the environment polled far behind - 8.1 per cent followed by 6.6 per cent who listed education as an important issue and 5.8 per cent who feel high taxes should be the big focus.
The leadership numbers are also revealing. Asked who would make the best prime minister, 28.4 per cent of the respondents picked Mr. Harper, down from last month's result of 30.7 per cent.
In addition, Mr. Nanos looked at his leadership index, which is a compendium of three questions: which leader do you trust more, which is more competent, which has the better vision for Canada? He gave Mr. Harper a score of 84.9 per cent compared to 45.1 per cent for Mr. Ignatieff and 46.1 per cent for Mr. Layton.
But there little glimmer of hope for Mr. Ignatieff here. In September, the Liberal Leader's score was 39 points compared to 43.9 for Mr. Layton and 83.3 per cent for Mr. Harper.
The poll of 1,017 Canadians was conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 5. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.