Editorial cartoon by Brian GableThe Globe and Mail
1. On the move. Stephen Harper is heading to Rideau Hall on Friday morning to shuffle his cabinet, which is becoming an almost semi-annual event.
This one is to be small - sources say it could involve five people - but big guns in cabinet like Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, Defence Minister Peter MacKay, Industry Minister Tony Clement and Environment Minister Jim Prentice are not moving.
This mini-shuffle (the last one was in January) was precipitated by Government House Leader Jay Hill's decision not to run in the next election. At the Tory summer national caucus meeting Thursday in Ottawa, it was made clear that it was Mr. Hill's last day in his post.
His shoes will be hard to fill.
The rumours are that Indian Affairs Minister Chuck Strahl is moving - the money is on him moving to house leader, where he has some experience, having done the job in opposition. But there is another rumour that he'll takeover the Transport Minister and that John Baird, who is the reliable performer for Mr. Harper, will take the procedural reins.
Mr. Baird handles all of the Prime Minister's questions in the House when Mr. Harper is absent. He is solid and well-liked in his caucus but can really get under the skin of the opposition. It would be interesting to see him work with the opposition in the pressure-cooker environment of a minority Parliament.
British Columbia MP John Duncan, who is Mr. Strahl's parliamentary secretary, will likely be promoted to the Indian Affairs post. In this way, Mr. Harper is not shoring up B.C. representation in cabinet.
And then there is the expectation that rookie Manitoba MP Shelley Glover, will take over as the status of women minister, a post left vacant when Helena Guergis was fired from cabinet last April. Public Works Minister Rona Ambrose has been filling in temporarily since then.
Ms. Glover is a former police officer, fully bilingual and Metis. She has been serving ably as parliamentary secretary for official languages.
Lastly, there is late-breaking word that Ms. Ambrose could be on the move too, potentially swapping portfolios with International Trade Minister Peter Van Loan.
2. Changing tide. One poll does not an election make but the latest stunning results from EKOS have renewed speculation about a fall trip to the polls.
Liberal Party president Alfred Apps took out his calculator Thursday to analyze the new survey, which showed Stephen Harper's Tories dropping 11 points since mid-July as Michael Ignatieff's Liberals gain, coming within one point of the government.
Pollster Frank Graves blamed the brouhaha over scrapping the compulsory long-form census, in part, for the Tory slippage combined with the success of Mr. Ignatieff's cross-country bus tour. All this has Liberals - or at least their party president - intrigued and a little excited.
"For Libs, the key is that they have been within striking distance of the Tories, reinforced by a solid lead positioning among federalist parties in Quebec [i.e. the federalist alternative to Harper]and strong second choice positioning among Green and NDP voters in the rest of the country," Mr. Apps told The Globe in an email breaking down the results.
"The Tory problem is not simply that a majority does not seem likely and has not been likely for a long time," he said. "In fact, the consistent message of the polling is that a significantly reduced minority is the most probable result, with the trend being negative over eight months of this year."
For the Liberals to make a breakthrough and form government, he added, Mr. Ignatieff will have to try to capitalize on the fact a majority of Canadians believe Mr. Harper is taking the country in the wrong direction. Which is easier said than done.
Mr. Graves suggests, too, that the opposition parties, given these numbers, might want to strike earlier than later. "There is more collective upside now for the opposition parties to go than to stick with the status quo - that and the fact that this Parliament is well past its best before shelf life.
"These guys really can't stand each other," the pollster added. "Given a collective upside, and a good opportunity , the opposition will bring the government down. And the always overstated blame for authoring an 'early' election is a total non factor."
Mr. Apps, meanwhile, notes the trend of the last six months that has the Harper Tories hovering around 32 per cent in national support since their decision last year to prorogue. And he wonders how the controversy over the government's decision to scrap the compulsory long-form census will affect the Tory fortunes over the long term.
"If the 'new normal' following the 'census craziness' is 30 per cent or lower, the drop from the last election for the CPC is now up to 20 per cent of its vote [i.e. more than one in five voters who voted CPC last time]growing from a loss in support of about 14 per cent over the first six months of the year," Mr. Apps said.
EKOS polling this year shows the Conservatives have gone from 37.6 per cent support at the 2008 election to about 32 per cent support, including a low of 30.5 per cent. The Liberals, meanwhile, had 26.2 per cent support in the 2008 election compared to an average over the past six months of 28.4 per cent.
Tories, meanwhile, say the EKOS results are not unexpected in these dog days of summer. In fact, some Conservatives suggest Canadians are not paying attention to politics right now and that will likely change when the House returns.