The weather is forecast to be a balmy 27 degrees in Guadalajara, Mexico, tomorrow but Prime Minister Stephen Harper should feel a slight nip in the air when he arrives for the annual North American Leaders' Summit.
This year's Three Amigos gathering among Canada, the United States and Mexico will be the first time Mr. Harper meets Mexican President Felipe Calderon since slapping surprise travel restrictions on visitors from Mexico last month.
He's likely to get a cool reception, particularly after the Prime Minister's Office signalled yesterday it has no intention of lifting visa requirements it has imposed on Mexican visitors - or even promising such - during the two-day meeting.
Mexican concerns - from the visa flap to Mr. Calderon's prolonged and bloody war against drug cartels - are likely to loom large at a summit where Canada's biggest demand is also likely to go unfulfilled. Ottawa will press U.S. President Barack Obama for an exemption from protectionist "Buy America" procurement policies but Canadian officials are playing down the chances of a breakthrough.
The annual Three Amigos meeting itself - only five years old - is showing signs of fading in importance. It's jettisoned an ambitious set of three-way talks adopted during U.S. president George W. Bush's term in office to advance economic and security integration of North American. This much-ballyhooed Security and Prosperity Partnership is missing from the agenda, as are the senior North American business executives that had been invited to the past two summits to help steer discussions.
Unlike Mexico, Canada won't even get a one-on-one meeting with Mr. Obama during the Guadalajara summit. Mr. Harper will have to wait until Sept. 16 for a tête-à-tête at the White House.
Michael Hart, a former Canadian trade negotiator who teaches at Carleton University, calls the summits irrelevant. "We have an intense, complicated relationship with the United States. We do not with the Mexicans. The Mexicans have an intense complicated relationships with the U.S. They do not with Canada."
Derek Burney, a former Canadian ambassador to Washington, said the trilateral talks in and of themselves haven't generated much in the way of substance over the years.
"When you get into a trilateral setting you're dealing with low-common-denominator commonality and you're evading some of the harder bilateral issues that need to be addressed."
Champions of the trilateral approach, including Canadian Council of Chief Executives CEO Thomas d'Aquino, say the meetings still give prime ministers valuable face time with the U.S. president.
Colin Robertson, a veteran diplomat and fellow at Carleton University, agrees. "Don't discount the importance of proximity," he said. He warned Canadians not to underestimate the increasing importance that Mexico is taking on in the minds of Americans because of Latino immigration and power and population shifts to the U.S. South.
"If we don't factor in Mexico, which is sometimes the temptation, then we play at a disadvantage."
The NAFTA leaders will use several hours of joint face time in Guadalajara to prepare for the September Group-of-20 economic summit, to talk about a feared fall resurgence of the swine flu virus, and to discuss how to fight climate change in a way that doesn't leave them offside with the United States.
But Canadian officials already appear to be looking to the Sept. 16 meeting between Mr. Harper and Mr. Obama as more important than the Guadalajara summit for addressing pressing issues. The Prime Minister's Office made a point of announcing the September White House get-together during a press briefing yesterday on the North American Leader's Summit.
After the Three Amigos meeting concludes Monday, Mr. Harper will head to Panama where he is expected to sign a free-trade deal with the Central American country.
Steven Chase