Politics Briefing newsletter: Canada has ‘concerns’ about Saudi use of arms

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Good morning,

It happens to the best of us. There you are, ready to cross the border to go on vacation, when you forget about the .357 Magnum in your glove compartment (think the revolver Rick Grimes uses to blow away zombies in The Walking Dead). Or, you're heading across the border with your wife and you know you shouldn't bring your handgun with you, but you're just so worried about your safety in New Brunswick that you stow it away in her luggage without telling her.

More and more otherwise-law-abiding Americans are getting caught at the border trying to bring guns (accidentally or otherwise) into Canada, law enforcement officials say. They advise Americans truthfully declare if they have a gun in their car when crossing the border, rather than risk fines or imprisonment.

Or, you know, just leave it at home.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Chris Hannay in Ottawa, Mayaz Alam and Eleanor Davidson in Toronto, and James Keller in Vancouver. If you're reading this on the web or someone forwarded this email newsletter to you, you can sign up for Politics Briefing and all Globe newsletters here. Let us know what you think.

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CANADIAN HEADLINES

The federal government has registered its "concerns" with Saudi Arabia over the kingdom's apparent use of Canadian-made armoured vehicles against its own citizens, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Federal prisons have seen a significant reduction in the number of inmates held in solitary confinement following the implementation of new rules that granted certain vulnerable groups immunity. Despite the drastic drop, Canada's federal prisons ombudsman, who provided the data to The Globe, said that he will "put in place a strategy to monitor how these policies are being applied."

B.C.'s NDP government is preparing to launch a registry of temporary foreign workers. Details of the registry emerged in a mandate letter for the province's new labour minister, Harry Bains. His ministry says the registry will track personal data such as names and employers, in addition to broad statistics related to the program, which the province already has. The use of temporary foreign workers has come under scrutiny in B.C., notably after a Chinese-owned mine announced plans four years ago to use hundreds of miners hired under the program instead of hiring locals.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is enjoying another personal day in B.C., according to his public itinerary.

And a new Nanos Research survey conducted for The Globe and Mail finds that Canadians are getting less confident in the government's ability to successfully renegotiate the North American free trade agreement with the United States.

Adam Radwanski (The Globe and Mail) on the Conservative Party's Trudeau problem: "Whenever the Conservatives give the same tired reactions to the flash with which Mr. Trudeau markets himself, they wind up refighting a battle against him they have already lost, instead of paving the way for one they could win...Mr. Trudeau did not hide during the last campaign that he is a flashy extrovert, prone to dramatic flourishes, less bashful than many Canadian politicians about embracing the spotlight; this is someone who did a photo op sparring in a boxing gym the morning of his first leaders' debate. Anyone who voted for his Liberals either embraced or accepted his showiness – and in the process, rejected the Conservatives' (and NDP's) argument that it proved Mr. Trudeau a lightweight."

David Mulroney (The Globe and Mail) on Canada and China: "We haven't begun to think through how challenging a more China-centric world will be for us. We need to raise our game significantly, crafting a sophisticated, well-informed and intelligently co-ordinated foreign policy focused on Canadian interests and Canadian values. We will certainly need capable trade negotiators. But we'll also need to invest in the security assets necessary to block Chinese espionage and interference. We'll need even more consular officials to assist Canadians caught up in a Chinese legal system that always favours the home team. We will need China-savvy Canadian diplomats working with allies and multilateral agencies on approaches to constrain China's worst impulses – while supporting the undeniably good things China does."

Thomas Gunton (The Globe and Mail) on the future of LNG in B.C.: "In British Columbia's case, the government made a series of concessions to deliver on its unrealistic promises that undermine the rationale for developing the industry in the first place."

National Post Editorial Board on the Saudi arms deal: "While this whole affair stinks, consider the alternative: Canada doesn't sell to Saudi Arabia, our economy suffers, our own domestic military production capabilities suffer (or die); meanwhile, Saudi Arabia sinks its vast cash reserves into buying someone else's weapons and carries on as ever. Canada can keep its hands more or less clean, or it can sustain an arms-export industry that provides important economic and security benefits to our own country. If it's possible to do both at once, we've yet to figure out how."

Zara Liaqat (Policy Options) on the Trans-Pacific Partnership 2.0: "The United States has shown an interest in negotiating individual bilateral agreements with some countries, particularly Japan. The resulting outcome is complex for Canada and the countries that already have bilateral trade deals with the United States. Given that Japan has ratified the original deal, along with New Zealand, Canada's participation in TPP 2.0 would be preferable to the conceivable alternative of a multilateral agreement from which Canada is excluded; TPP 2.0 can grant Canadian firms relatively unfettered access to the trans-Pacific countries."

INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES

Today's election in Kenya will be a tight race between President Uhuru Kenyatta and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga. Kenyatta is the son of Kenya's first president; Odinga is the son of the country's first vice-president and has run in vain for the top post in three previous contests. In the final days of the campaign, Canadian citizen Andreas Katsouris was deported. Katsouris is the senior vice-president of Aristotle, Inc., a Washington-based firm that provided strategy and data analysis for the opposition campaign. Last week, an election technology official was tortured and murdered -- the opposition alleged he was killed in order to allow the president to control voting results. Any hint of vote rigging would heighten the danger of post-election violence, which is causing some Kenyans to prepare for the worst. People stockpiled food and water on Monday, police prepared emergency kits and people fled major cities.

The threat of an uprising has haunted Kenya since the 2007 election, when roughly 1,500 people were killed and more than 600,000 left homeless. Take a look back at the violence that hit Kenya 10 years ago, from The Globe's Stephanie Nolen.

South African President Jacob Zuma will face a no-confidence vote today, held through a secret ballot in the country's parliament. The secret ballot could embolden members of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) to vote against Zuma, which puts the president in a precarious position as he struggles to fend off opposition accusations of corruption and mismanaging the economy. If the motion succeeds, Mr. Zuma and his cabinet would be forced to step down. Eight previous votes against Mr. Zuma have failed, but they were all held through an open process.

The political crisis in Venezuela continues and neither the pro-government or anti-government factions is backing down. With duelling national assemblies now existing -- President Nicolas Maduro's backers now fill the newly created legislative body -- governing in the energy-rich socialist country promises to be anything but easy.

Stringent new economic sanctions placed by the international community against North Korea are causing a collapse in the country's seafood prices. On Monday, prices of North Korean fresh squid were barely a third of what they were last week. The new measures, believed to be the strongest sanctions ever imposed on North Korea, are part of demands on the country to end missile and nuclear tests. While $1-billion (U.S.) could be cut from North Korea's export revenue, the country's isolation could be a saving grace. North Korea is far less trade-dependent than most countries (trade makes up just 10 per cent of its GDP, compared to the global average of 58 per cent), which raises some doubts about how much the new measures will accomplish.

U.S. scientists worried that the Trump administration will suppress a landmark study on climate change have leaked the report to the New York Times. The scientists attribute recent record-setting heat waves and extreme weather to climate change caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels.

And if you ever wondered what happens at Trump Hotel in Washington, just a few doors down from the White House, a Washington Post reporter camped out there for a month. "Anecdotally, [the hotel] is doing well because people are staying there when they come to visit the White House," one analyst said.

Doug Saunders (The Globe and Mail) on the Deep State: "The idea that the public sector is a hostile enemy has support well beyond far-right conspiracy theorists. The respectable version of the Deep State concept emerged in the 1990s as an outgrowth of the influential economic school known as public-choice theory. In this view, public employees are a special-interest group driven by economic motives of self-interest to expand their numbers and to seize resources and privileges from the general public. They are not working for the public or the government, but for their own gain."

Amrit Dhillon (The Globe and Mail) on Narendra Modi: In India, there is only one topic being discussed in political circles these days: can anyone or anything stop Prime Minister Narendra Modi winning the next general election? Even though it is still two years away, the feeling is growing in some circles that his position is so strong it will take a near-miracle to stop him. Of course, two years is an eternity in politics. Anything can happen. But after three years in office, there are three incontrovertible facts about Mr. Modi: undimmed popularity, a stature that dwarfs all others and the inability of a single opposition politician to hold a candle to him."

Michela Wrong (The New York Times) on the Kenyan election: "Kenya's capital is gearing up for elections on Tuesday and for many residents, that means getting out of town. Ever since 2007-8, when more than 1,100 people died in election-related violence and the country hovered on the brink of civil war, this jittery exodus has become a routine. In the run-up to each ballot, the interwoven strands that make up this diverse nation's ethnic fabric are carefully unpicked, and residents head for the safety of their ancestral homelands."