Today is the first official day of the New Brunswick election. Between now and Sept. 27, when voting takes places, it will be fascinating to watch what role memory plays in shaping the outcome. Political observers are always trying to determine the breadth and depth of the memory of the electorate.
It was only a few months ago that New Brunswick was seized with a significant debate about its economic future. Incumbent Shawn Graham's Liberal government was trying to sell NB Power and a variety of its assets to Quebec in effort to pay down a sizeable portion of New Brunswick's debt. The deal fell apart in spectacular fashion and according to numerous polls conducted at the time, significant political advantage was afforded to the quiet and steady Progressive Conservative Opposition Leader David Alward, who was against the accord.
Some called Graham's attempted NB Power sale audacious; yours truly and others called it illogical. New Brunswick voters didn't appear to like it. However, had this move succeeded you can be damn sure it would have been the centerpiece of the Premier's re-election narrative.
The question now is how ingrained in the memory banks of New Brunswickers this power play is. Graham, who I am personally quite fond of, did stake a lot of his own personal credibility on the venture. He also showed the public something about his style, convictions and priorities. How will they rate him now as they go to the polls? Will the failed sell-off to Quebec register?
Talk to any New Brunswicker from any political party about PC Leader David Alward and universally they all say the same thing about him -- nice decent man with his heart and head in the right place, but his political abilities still to be determined. Can Alward tap into the collective memory banks of New Brunswickers and siphon the anger of those days into a lever for change in late September?
Donald Savoie, the eminent political scientist from New Brunswick, penned this primer on the challenges facing New Brunswick as this campaign kicks off. Apart from being well worth the read it contextualizes why voters in that province should revisit the failed agreement when making a determination about how they'll mark their ballot. But will they?