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A campaign is made up of days. Some you win. Some you lose. If you win more than you lose, you should win the campaign. This blog will track the winner of the day for the duration.

Day 2 7 Winner: Liberals

The Nik Nanos poll showing the race at 35-30 may have been a mirage, but it gave the Liberals a burst of energy when everyone is tired. Emotions matter in an election. Its easy to work hard when the wind is at your back and you're sailing to government, especially for the first time. It's hard to work when you are depressed over losing an election that was yours to win. But work you must to secure as many seats and prepare for next time. They are going to feel like there is still an election here, and that's a powerful factor. And I wanted to add another point about the Nanos poll. The more I think about it, the more I think it was accurate and captured something that was there. I'm going to go pull out my old copy of Letting the People Decide and reexamine the story of the polling in the 1988 election. My recollection is that there was a single poll that showed Turner out in front, and it was widely criticized for being inaccurate. But what actually had occurred, the party tracking after the election revealed, was that Turner had slipped into the lead for a brief moment between the debate and the launch of the PC "bomb the bridge" ads. The Nanos poll may be the beginning of a trend. But if it isn't, it may have measured an impact in English Canada from the French language debate that dissipated after the English-language debate.

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