Hey, it's clear as mud.
On the one hand, we have The Globe and Mail reporting that "the New Democratic Party is signalling it may allow Prime Minister Stephen Harper to continue governing rather than force an election that polls say voters don't want." And the Toronto Star sees it much the same. Meanwhile, those of a more cynical bent who are hoping not to have to troop to the polls may be reassured by this Canwest report: "One out of five MPs in the House of Commons can boost their chances of receiving a lucrative pension by preventing a fall election and ensuring the current Parliament survives at least until July 2010."
On the other hand, before you forget about an imminent election so as to get on with your life, you should note that La Presse is reporting that "An election is inevitable. … An NDP source indicated last night that there have been no discussions with emissaries of the Harper government to find common ground. 'This leads us to believe that they, too, want an election.'" And, behind its fire-wall, Le Devoir is carrying a report this morning that suggests that NDP planning in Québec is proceeding full speed ahead:
"Strategists have set four ridings as their priorities, and those ridings will have greater resources during the campaign: Gatineau, Outremont, Sherbrooke and Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup. … New Democrats will be reinforcing the Bloc message, which is attempting to demonstrate that Michael Ignatieff and Stephen Harper are one in the same for Québec. The NDP will hammer home the fact that the Liberals have voted 79 times to save the Conservatives from being defeated in the Commons."
What should we make of these varying reports?
Perhaps the New Democrat quoted in La Presse has it right: Mr. Harper, notwithstanding his protestations, may truly want an election. Or perhaps Jack Layton is simply stringing things out - making the most of the balance of power he now holds, responding to the public's lack of appetite for an election and refurbishing his image of always voting against. Or maybe those who focus on MP pensions, or on the precarious financial situation of the NDP, are realists, not cynics.
Your guess is as good as mine. However, based on my experience in government, one thing's for sure: if both Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton sincerely wish to avoid an election, they'd better find a channel of communication to work it out. And they'd better do it soon.
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Update Like Michael Ignatieff, Jack Layton holds a PhD, and, I guess, could be considered an intellectual. However, unlike the Liberal Leader, he's been a practising politician for most of his working life. In Canada. And Mr. Layton has politics, not the bureaucracy bred in the bone - coming as he does from a long line of Québec politicians of a decidedly blue stripe.
That said, the most important difference we're seeing now between the two doctors relates to their respective political parties. The Liberals are the party of the Canadian establishment, in its largest sense. The NDP is the party of the trade union movement.
Being the party of the trade unions, the NDP has available a wide array of wily people with vast experience in the art of negotiation. And a sophisticated process of negotiation is precisely what we're seeing now on the part of Mr. Layton.
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Another update It's easy enough to be cynical about Diane Finley's EI announcement, and there will be no shortage of critics, including in the media, who adopt this posture. And, frankly, I'd be the last person to suggest that the Conservatives are not hoping to survive a confidence vote, or, failing that, to position themselves for an election campaign.
That said, what we are now seeing is how a democratic system is supposed to work: A significant number of Canadians are hurting as a result of the deep recession. And a majority of MPs may, in the end, put their interests ahead of the partisan and media games playing that we see all too often in Ottawa.
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Third update Last week, Michael Ignatieff said:
"Let me be very clear - the Liberal party would not agree to a coalition."
"In January we did not support a coalition and we do not support a coalition today or tomorrow."...
Today, in Question Period, Mr. Ignatieff accused the Conservatives of forming a coalition with the NDP.
Does this mean that Mr. Ignatieff would not agree, if he becomes prime minister after the next election, to the kind of cooperation Mr. Layton and Mr. Harper may be on the verge of consummating?
Just asking.