Editorial cartoon by Brian GableBrian Gable/The Globe and Mail
Writing in The National Post, David Frum speculates that Steve-o was bluffing to a purpose when he called out Ignatieff for a one on one debate then retracted the offer a day or so later.
"He has goaded Michael Ignatieff into publicly pooh-poohing the NDP and BQ with his comment that neither Jack Layton nor Gilles Duceppe can hope to become prime minister. The obvious truth of the comment makes it all the more annoying.
"The prime minister's challenge was aimed at stirring up Michael Ignatieff's greatest weakness: his disrespect for his opponent, Stephen Harper. It's not just a matter of intellectual vanity, although there is certainly plenty of that on display. It's also emotional. Ignatieff seems to have convinced himself that Harper is history's greatest monster, to borrow a phrase from The Simpsons. If only he can pull Harper alone in front of the cameras (Ignatieff seems to imagine), then all Canadians will perceive Harper as Ignatieff perceives Harper: a lawless dictator trampling the prerogatives of Parliament."
Well, sure; Frum says that like it's a negative thing. Whether Ig gets to debate Harper one on one or in a scrum, his only job is to convince Canadians that Harper's the wrong guy for the job and by default Ig isn't. Okay that's overstating it but you take my point. Ig's caught in a vote splitting nightmare. As such there's only one way he gets to be PM; enough Canadians need to find the idea of a dark, reactionary Nixonian figure like Harper with unfettered control over Parliament so repellant that they vote in sufficient numbers for ABH (Anybody But Harper) thereby keeping the Tories well south of a majority.
At that point the Grits and the Dippers make a deal (with the informal backing of the Bloc) to form a government thereby making good on the democratic will of the people (demonstrable since two out of three Canadians will have voted ABH).
The extent to which Ig can convince Canadians that this is a better arrangement than more of la meme chose will determine his fate both as both a prospective PM and as leader of the Liberal Party (As Jeffrey Simpson pointed out he didn't help his cause by "ruling out" a coalition but what's a campaign promise for if it's not to be broken). An improved Tory minority or heaven forefend a Tory majority and Ig's likely gone on election night. Given Harper's rope-a-dope campaign style which, for the moment he has no reason to abandon, it could come down to Ignatieff's ability to hammer home his message at the debate.
Harper got something of a pass last time around as Stéphane Dion, Lord love him, couldn't convince a drowning man he needed a life preserver in either official language. Ignatieff will do much much better in these debates make no mistake. And if he can hold off his habit of falling to superciliousness (which he's kept nicely in check thus far) Harper could find himself having to come to the centre of the ring for the last two weeks of the campaign