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bruce anderson

Prime Minister Stephen Harper uses a nail gun while touring a home undergoing renovations in Ottawa on Jan. 28, 2009.CHRIS WATTIE/Reuters

A few days ago, it became evident that the Conservatives were becoming more comfortable with asking voters to give them a majority in the next election, a smart shift from the way they had approached things last time out.

To explain what's in it for voters, the argument was about the value of stability in government, and an end to the perpetual threat of an election.

Stability may not be not a huge, stirring ambition, but it is more grand than, say, "Give us some, but not too much support, and feel confident that we won't be able to do too many things that you don't want." Better still for the Conservatives to ask for a big mandate to accomplish some important change, but nonetheless an improvement in communications approach.

In the last couple of days, Tories have added a new, much more granular twist to their pre-campaign campaign. They are highlighting the fact that the loss of this Conservative government would mean the loss of the tax break on home renovations. How well might this work?

To the extent that the Conservatives want to be known as the anti-tax crusaders, having a popular tax cut as a hook is a pretty good idea. Voters often need to see something tangible, something that can directly affect them, in order to get excited by the philosophical differences or rhetorical flourishes of major parties. It was useful for Bill Clinton to campaign for school uniforms as a way of illustrating that his brand of Democratic politics was consonant with the "family values" agenda. School uniforms was not really a big idea, but it created a bigger take-away for voters.

However, the home renovation tax cut idea is not without some drawbacks. First, while lots of people like the tax cut, not everyone will take advantage of it, and so there's a limit on how many people might be really bent out of shape at the prospect of its demise. Second, there's nothing that would prevent the Liberals from promising to continue with the program if they so chose, or grandfather those who've done renovations in good faith.

Third, support for budget busting stimulative spending is correlated to how worried we are about the economy: with each week, more people feel the economy is healing, and may wonder if we really need to borrow more money from our kids to paint our decks. The Liberals will need to find a way to make the case that they can fix the fiscal problem, and taking a "principled" fiscal stand against a popular tax cut might create a difficult spot for a PM who prides himself on fiscal rectitude and the least intervention necessary.

Finally, the Conservatives should try to avoid being cast as the party of moderate ambition and small ideas. Just as Mr. Ignatieff needed to walk swiftly away from looking as though he was going to force an election over EI rules, Mr. Harper probably can't win an election because people want a tax break for a home renovation project.

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