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bruce anderson

A security guard patrols Parliament Hill on Jan. 6, 2010, a week after Prime Minister shut down the House of Commons till after the Olympics.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

It's been a while since circumstances allowed me a bit of time to reflect on national affairs, but now seems a good moment to pick up the thread. I've been sifting through a fair bit of public-opinion data in recent weeks, and as dust has been settling around Prime Minister Stephen Harper's prorogation play here's what I make of the political situation as it stands today.

Ironically, just as everyone was concluding that nothing good could come for Canada from shutting down Parliament, a couple of positive story lines may be emerging.

First, Michael Ignatieff has shifted from a grinding, over-revving second gear into an energetic, smoother third gear. He may still need more pace and agility, but there's no doubt he's doing better.

He's sounding more like a man who's comfortable in his skin. He's putting ideas into the market, marking some territory that the Liberals intend to own. More useful still, he no longer looks like someone twitching to find partisan advantage right now, this moment, every day. Letting partisan advantage be the back-story, not the billboard, is serving him well. He needed to acknowledge as he did, that his pursuit of an unpopular election had put him offside with a lot of accessible voters. So, good for all of us, that a leading choice has become more competitive, and not just by default.

At the same time, his chief rival, Stephen Harper, has been tuning up his own game. I suppose one could make the case that he might have done a better job arguing the reasons for prorogation. But I happen to feel it was pretty clear to most voters what the move was about, and trying to convince them otherwise would have only risked more people feeling he was dissembling. Better to take your lumps and move on sometimes.

Meanwhile on the international stage, Mr. Harper is looking like the kind of Prime Minister many Canadians yearn for. In recent months he's pursued our economic interests with successful visits to India, and China, and some dogged diplomacy with the United States resulted in a notable win on the Buy American policy file. His handling of the tragedy in Haiti was resonant with the compassion Canadians feel themselves. While he's taking a drubbing in Quebec, elsewhere he has been finessing a position on global climate change that had political risk written all over it. He seems on his way to establishing that "lack of error" on the world stage is no longer the measure of success, but table stakes.

So where does all this net out?

Today's dead heat in the polls suggests a good stretch for the Liberals and a bad run for the Conservatives. I remain of the view that the act of prorogation hasn't been a "game changer," but maybe a "curve bender." Serendipitously, soft voters around the centre of the spectrum who were unhappy with Mr. Harper's move began to look more closely at Mr. Ignatieff just as he was sharpening his focus and skills. But moving from 28 per cent to 32 per cent connotes progress, not triumph. Liberals enjoying this better mood will want to take note of the way Mr. Harper has been evolving, and recognize that he continues to become a more mature, seasoned and effective political leader too.

Maybe it's a "cup half full" mindset, but I can't help but wonder if we are heading for a different kind of election, one with less defensive voting, (people voting to avoid the outcome they most dislike) and more of a vigorous contest of appealing ideas and respected personalities.

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