A man walks past Liberal signage at Michael Ignatieff's election-night headquarters in Toronto on May 2, 2011.Peter Power/The Globe and Mail
Two weeks ago, the Liberal Party of Canada had its representation in the House of Commons reduced by more than half. The Grits did not gain any new seats but only managed to hold on to 34 of the 77 ridings they held when the election was called. But in addition to being culled to less than half its size, the constituency that the Liberal Party now represents has also changed. It is poorer, less ethnically diverse, and more concentrated on the Atlantic coast.
These are the findings of an analysis of the changing face of the Liberal constituency, a comparison of the demographic profile of the ridings represented by Liberal MPs before and after the May 2 federal election. Analyses of the constituencies represented by New Democrats and Conservatives will be presented in the coming two weeks.
The population of the ridings represented by the Liberals shrank from 8.4 million to only 3.4 million, or roughly 10 per cent of all Canadians.
The regional distribution of Liberal seats has shifted eastwards. Whereas 48 per cent of the Liberal caucus (37 seats in all) came from Ontario when the government fell in March, the province now supplies only 32 per cent of Grit MPs. The proportion of seats coming from the West and Quebec has not changed significantly, but the representation of Atlantic Canada in the Liberal caucus has grown to over 35 per cent from 22 per cent. The 12 MPs from the four Atlantic provinces now form the largest regional block in the Liberal caucus.
Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver still remain the three most important cities for Liberals, with these urban centres supplying 16 of the 34 Grit MPs to be sworn into the House of Commons. But that is a severe reduction for the Liberals, who drew 48 MPs from these three metropolitan regions prior to the election. With two MPs, Ottawa is now as important a part of the Liberal caucus as Vancouver, a city roughly three times the size.
The median age of Canadians in the 34 Liberal constituencies is not much different than it was in the 77 ridings previously held by the party, increasing to 39.7 years from 39.1. However, that now makes the Liberal constituency older than the Canadian median age of 39.5 years.
The Liberals also represent slightly more women than the national average. The population of the 34 Liberal seats is 51.7 per cent female, slightly more than the national proportion of 51 per cent.
With the shift eastwards, the population represented by Liberal MPs is now poorer. Prior to the election, the average Liberal constituency had a median household income of $54,000 per year, equal to the national average. But the median household income of the ridings the Liberals now represent is only $49,000 per year, or $5,000 below the national average. That does not mean that the Liberals do not represent any rich ridings. Their richest constituents live in Markham-Unionville, with a median household income of almost $79,000 per year.
Paradoxically, the Liberal constituency is more educated. Whereas 14.7 per cent of Canadians have a university degree, 20.3 per cent of Canadians living in Liberal ridings can say the same.
Despite the Liberal Party's long history of French-speaking leaders, the proportion of its constituents who speak French is well below the national total. In the 34 Liberal ridings, only 11.6 per cent are native French-speakers, compared to the national total of 21.8 per cent, and in only two of them do French-speakers make up the largest linguistic block (and only one of them is in Quebec). The proportion whose mother tongue is English has increased to 56.5 per cent from 52.2, with the proportion of Canadians whose mother tongue is not one of the official languages dropping to 30.3 per cent from 35. Nevertheless, that is still well above the national average of 20.6 per cent who have a mother tongue other than French or English.
This diversity should come as no surprise, considering that Liberal ridings are concentrated in cities like Toronto and Montreal. Though immigrants make up 19.8 per cent of Canada's population, they make up 29.6 per cent of the Liberal constituency. That is still a drop from 34.9 per cent, due in large part to the Liberals' losses in the Greater Toronto Area, but still five of the 34 Liberal ridings have populations where immigrants make up the majority. Those who identify as visible minorities have dropped from one-third to 28 per cent, though that is still well above the 16.2 per cent national average.
Also due to their concentration in Canada's largest urban centres is the relatively small proportion of the Liberal Party's constituency that is aboriginal: only 2 per cent. That is roughly half of the national average of 3.8 per cent. Had the Liberals not held on to Winnipeg North, Wascana, and some of their ridings in Newfoundland, that proportion would have been even lower.
The Liberals are still a party whose constituents are more educated and more diverse than the national average. But little more than 1 in 10 of the people they represent are native French speakers and more than one in three of their MPs come from Atlantic Canada. As the party re-tools with a view towards the next election that will take place more than four years from now, the demands of these different constituencies may clash with the message of a party striving to become a national force in Canadian politics once again.
Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com . Next week, we will turn to the radically different constituencies the New Democrats now represent.