The latest formula to rebalance the House of Commons would give Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia new seats to lessen the underrepresentation in the House of fast-growing urban areas, while ensuring Quebec's share of seats does not drop below what its population warrants.
Independent electoral commissions will decide where and how to incorporate the new seats. But a quick look at the electoral map suggests that the Conservatives would win most of them, further bolstering their already comfortable majority.
Alberta
The largest ridings in Alberta can be found in Calgary, Edmonton and the petroleum-rich far north. In the next election, the Tories would probably take all six new ridings.
Largest ridings:
Peace River |
138,010(C) |
Calgary West |
132,155(C) |
Calgary-Nose Hill |
130,945(C) |
Calgary Northeast |
129,020(C) |
Edmonton-Spruce Grove |
128,950(C) |
Edmonton East |
128,200(C) |
British Columbia
Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland are where much of the growth in British Columbia is to be found. All the parties are competitive in this region. But the Conservatives could probably count on taking three of the five new seats up for grabs. The NDP and the Liberals might each take one.
Largest ridings:
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky-Country |
129,250(C) |
Nanaimo-Cowichan |
125,160(NDP) |
Abbotsford |
124,515(C) |
Vancouver Centre |
123,705(L) |
Fleetwood-Port Kells |
123,245(C) |
Ontario
Much of the population growth focuses on the outer suburban communities surrounding Toronto. The Tory breakthrough here on May 2 secured their majority. They could win nearly all of the 13 new seats.
Largest ridings
Brampton West |
170,420(C) |
Oak Ridges-Markham |
169,645(C) |
Vaughan |
154,215(C) |
Bramalea-Gore-Malton |
152,700(C) |
Halton |
151,940(C) |
Quebec
If history repeats itself, both of the two seats Quebec would receive would be won by the NDP, which took most of the province on May 2, including these large ridings in and around Montreal
Largest ridings
Montcalm |
122,825(NDP) |
Vaudreuil–Soulanges |
120,395(NDP) |
Chambly–Borduas |
116,925(NDP) |
Brossard–La Prairie |
113,985(NDP) |
Jeanne-Le Ber |
112,863(NDP) |
So if an election were held tomorrow with the new rules in place, and history repeats itself, the Conservatives could win in the range of 20 of the 26 new ridings.